Freedom Broker analysts lowered their target price for Vox Royalty (VOXR) shares from $7.90 to $6.60 while maintaining a “Buy” rating. The revision is primarily due to changes in precious metals price forecasts and the sale of two assets from the company’s portfolio. Despite moderately negative second-quarter results, the analysts remain positive on the stock.
Vox Royalty operates under a royalty and streaming model in the mining industry. The company receives payments tied to the production and sale of metals from partners’ projects, allowing it to benefit from rising commodity values without directly operating mines and deposits.
Vox Royalty’s results came in below expectations
In the second quarter, Vox Royalty’s total revenue rose 2.2x year over year to $6.2 million. However, the result was 28% below Freedom Broker’s forecast of $8.5 million and 21% below the market consensus of $7.8 million. Royalty revenue totaled $1.6 million, down 43.8% year over year and 27.4% versus the prior quarter.
The company’s reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $9.7 million versus $1.1 million a year earlier. However, the figure included about $7.4 million in gains from selling assets above their book value. Excluding this effect, the metric was about $2.3 million and also came in below forecasts. The fully adjusted bottom line moved into negative territory, with a net loss of $1.5 million.
At the same time, Vox Royalty reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance at $32–37 million and announced quarterly dividends of $0.015 per share, equivalent to roughly a 1.1% annual yield.
The sale of two assets brought Vox Royalty additional benefits
Another factor behind the valuation revision was transactions involving Federation Royalty and the i-80 Stream. The first asset was sold for approximately $5.58 million after being acquired in February 2026 for about $0.45 million. The company sold its rights to the i-80 Stream for $4.8 million, paid in i-80 Gold shares, which were subsequently sold at a 2.9% premium.
Freedom Broker analysts view both deals as tactically effective. At the same time, frequent selling and replacing of assets makes the company’s financial results more volatile and complicates forecasting.
High gold prices support Vox Royalty shares
One of the main arguments for keeping the “Buy” rating remains the situation in the gold market. Experts in the analytical report write that the metal’s price is holding above $4,300 per ounce. For Vox Royalty’s business model, rising gold prices are especially important: the company’s costs remain relatively stable while inflows increase, creating conditions for faster profitability growth.
Additional support comes from demand from central banks. According to data cited in the report, gold demand in the first two quarters of 2026 rose 2.8% year over year, and global central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves. Geopolitical uncertainty is also sustaining interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
The share of gold-related assets in Vox Royalty’s portfolio has reached 83%. Against this backdrop, an extended period of high gold prices, combined with the specifics of the business model, could support further growth in the company’s financial performance and profitability.
What risks Freedom Broker sees
Among the key risks, analysts highlight instability of cash inflows from royalty and streaming agreements, uncertainty around the timing of launches for certain projects, and the possibility of further dilution of existing shareholders.
Another factor is the expansion of the employee share-based compensation program. In the first half of the year, the volume of such payments increased 3.27x and reached 18.5% of revenue. In the analysts’ view, this could pressure profitability and lead to a gradual reduction in existing shareholders’ stakes.
As a result, Freedom Broker lowered its target price for Vox Royalty to $6.60 but maintained a “Buy” rating. The positive view is supported by the stock’s valuation, the high share of gold-related assets, and favorable conditions in the gold market.
Gold forecasts remain an important factor for investors
Previously, Freedom discussed changes in major investment banks’ expectations for the precious metal’s price. In particular, Deutsche Bank, following Goldman Sachs, sharply downgraded its gold forecast.
According to Natalia Milchakova, the lowering of forecasts by the largest investment banks reflects rising investment risks in the gold market. Additional pressure could come from further strengthening of the U.S. currency if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance or moves to tighten monetary policy.
In another piece, Freedom examined the decline in the precious metal’s price amid expectations of a shift in U.S. monetary policy. Подробнее – в материале “Gold gets cheaper amid expectations of Fed policy tightening”.
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