Freedom: Cancer vaccine opens a market of more than $240bn for Moderna

Shares of U.S. biotech company Moderna (MRNA), which develops vaccines and therapeutics based on messenger ribonucleic acid, rose 120% at the market open on August 19. The catalyst was successful late-stage trial results for the personalized vaccine intismeran for melanoma patients. Freedom analyst Vladimir Chernov believes the successful trials could significantly change how investors perceive Moderna. 

Moderna and Merck report success for a melanoma vaccine

Moderna is developing the personalized cancer vaccine intismeran together with U.S. pharmaceutical company Merck (MRK). In the study, the vaccine was used in combination with Merck’s Keytruda. This combination therapy met the study’s primary endpoints: it extended the period without disease recurrence after melanoma removal and reduced the risk of the cancer spreading to other organs.

How Moderna’s personalized melanoma vaccine works

Intismeran is created individually for each patient. After surgery, specialists analyze blood and tumor tissue samples and identify mutations characteristic of the cancer cells. Based on these, a vaccine is produced that helps the immune system recognize and attack the tumor. Manufacturing the individualized drug takes about six weeks.  

During the study, intismeran was used together with Merck’s Keytruda. Detailed efficacy metrics have not yet been published. Moderna and Merck plan to present the full results at a профильной medical conference later in 2026.  

The companies are also exploring the use of the approach in other cancers, including bladder cancer, kidney cancer, and a common form of lung cancer.  

Freedom expects investor interest in Moderna shares to remain strong

The study’s success gives Moderna an opportunity to enter the oncology drug market, valued at more than $240bn. This is especially important for the company amid declining sales of coronavirus vaccines.  

According to data cited by Freedom analyst Vladimir Chernov, even conservative estimates suggest melanoma therapy could generate about $3bn in annual revenue for Moderna by 2035. Potential use of the technology for other cancers could further increase the commercial potential of the oncology segment.

The analyst sees the 120% share surge as reflecting a reassessment of the company’s long-term prospects and does not expect the move to be fully corrected in the coming weeks. At the same time, further price dynamics will depend primarily on the detailed study results and the prospects for a commercial launch of the therapy.

A significant risk factor remains the complexity of producing personalized vaccines. Because the drug is made separately for each patient, its production is more complex and costly compared with mass-produced medicines.  

Moderna expands its business beyond coronavirus vaccines

Freedom previously wrote about the company’s financial results. In the second quarter, Moderna’s revenue ⁠increased from $142m to $145m, and the loss was smaller than a year earlier. The company expected that in 2026 about half of its revenue would come from the U.S. market, with the remainder from international markets.  

In June, Moderna ⁠presented a long-term strategy for developing its messenger RNA-based platform. In addition to vaccines for infectious diseases, the company plans to develop oncology drugs and treatments for rare diseases.  

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