Freedom expects Century Aluminum shares to rise by more than a quarter

Freedom Broker analysts recommended “Buy” for Century Aluminum Company (CENX) shares with a 2-month target price of $55. The upside potential is 27.2% relative to the entry price of $43. The investment thesis is based on the recovery of the company’s operating performance, high aluminum prices, a metal shortage in the U.S. market, and a promising new plant project in Oklahoma.

 Century Aluminum Company is a primary aluminum producer

Century Aluminum is a U.S. producer of primary aluminum. The company owns and operates aluminum smelters in the U.S. and Iceland, and is also the majority owner and managing partner of the Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica.

Earnings are entering a phase of structural improvement

According to Freedom Broker analysts, Century Aluminum is emerging from a multi-year period of operational disruptions. In Q2 the company increased aluminum shipments by 6% q/q to 130,632 tonnes, following completion of the Mt. Holly expansion in South Carolina and the return of the second line at the Grundartangi plant in Iceland to near-full utilization.

At the same time, Q2 results do not yet reflect the full effect of the operational improvements implemented, the experts believe. During the quarter, Century completed the restart of the last 90 pots at Mt. Holly, and Grundartangi restored the operation of its second line.

Management expects Century’s adjusted EBITDA in Q3 to be $325–345 million versus $326.9 million in Q2. In the analyst’s view, this implies a high level of baseline profitability even without additional growth in aluminum prices.

Financial metrics are strengthening

In Q2 2026, Century Aluminum’s revenue totaled $752.1 million versus $649.2 million in Q1. Net income came in at $249.3 million versus $337.5 million a quarter earlier.

The decline in net income is primarily due to the fact that in Q1 the company recognized one-off income of $287.9 million from the sale of the Hawesville aluminum smelter. At the same time, adjusted net income, on the contrary, increased from $170.7 million to $257.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose from $231.4 million to $326.9 million.

It is the adjusted metrics that better reflect the current business momentum: adjusted net income increased by $86.6 million sequentially, and adjusted EBITDA by $95.5 million.

The company also continues to strengthen its balance sheet: as of June 30, Century had $343.4 million in cash, and total liquidity was $784.9 million, including cash, restricted cash, and available borrowing capacity. As of the end of July, the company’s cash already exceeded its total debt. In addition, in July Century received a refund of the federal Section 45X tax credit for 2025 in the amount of $94.3 million.

Aluminum shortage supports the investment case

Analysts believe that fundamental conditions in the U.S. aluminum market remain exceptionally favorable for Century Aluminum. The company is one of the most direct vehicles for gaining exposure to the tightening supply-demand balance for primary aluminum in the U.S. A 50% Section 232 tariff under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 continues to protect U.S. producers, and low global inventory levels provide additional support for prices, experts say.

According to analysts’ estimates, the global aluminum market in 2026 may face a deficit of about 1 million tonnes, which is expected to persist in 2027 as well. For Century, this is particularly important because higher realized prices have already become one of the key drivers of improved financial results, analysts believe.

Oklahoma could change the scale of the business

A second major driver of the investment story, analysts say, is Century Aluminum’s project to build a new aluminum smelter in Oklahoma together with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA). EGA will own 60% of the joint venture, Century 40%. The new plant is expected to produce about 750 thousand tonnes of aluminum per year. This would more than double current U.S. primary aluminum production capacity.

Construction is scheduled to begin at the end of 2026, with first production expected by the end of 2029. The project has received support in the form of a $500 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy.

An additional supportive factor was a July measure under which companies investing in new U.S. aluminum production capacity may become eligible to import at a reduced 25% tariff rate in a volume equivalent to the planned new production capacity, instead of the base 50% rate.

Century expects to obtain permission to import up to 300 thousand tonnes of aluminum per year at the reduced rate starting in 2027. According to analysts, the savings from this opportunity could help finance Century’s share of the construction of the Oklahoma plant.

What is important to know about the company

Century Aluminum ended Q1 2026 with revenue of $649.2 million versus $633.7 million in Q4 2025. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $170.6 million to $231.4 million, and adjusted net income from $128.2 million to $170.7 million.

In Q1, the company began the expansion of the last 90 pots at Mt. Holly and the restart of the second line at Grundartangi. In Q2, these projects already began to be reflected in production results.

Not an individual investment recommendation.