Freedom Broker Bet on Platinum and Copper but Cut Its Aluminum Forecast

Freedom Broker analysts maintain a positive view on platinum and copper while taking a more cautious stance on gold, silver, aluminum, and iron ore. In the September commodities market review, the platinum forecast was raised from $1.7k to $1.8k per ounce, palladium — from $1.3k to $1.35k per ounce, and copper — by $0.10 per pound. The aluminum forecast, by contrast, was cut from $3.7k to $3.2k per ton.

Freedom Broker shifts to a selective approach

The rally in commodities markets is becoming less broad-based, Freedom Broker experts believe. Forecasts for gold and silver were left unchanged, while estimates for platinum, palladium, and copper were raised. At the same time, analysts sharply worsened their expectations for aluminum and moderately lowered forecasts for iron ore and coking coal.

The short-term forecast for gold remains neutral. At the current price of $4 409 per ounce, Freedom Broker expects the metal’s average price at $4 250 in Q3 and $4 600 in Q4 2026. The forecast for 2027 is $4 900 and for 2028 — $5 000 per ounce.

Silver at the current price of $65.19 per ounce is estimated by analysts at $65.00 in Q3 and $70.00 in Q4. The average forecast for 2027 is $63.25 and for 2028 — $60.00 per ounce.

A stronger dollar could limit gold

In the short term, further gains in gold may be capped by a potential strengthening of the dollar and tight global monetary policy. The DXY index is around 99.5 and retains a bullish tilt.

The market is awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15–16. Stronger-than-expected core inflation has pushed the probability of a rate hike well above 80%. The European Central Bank already raised rates on September 10, and the market puts the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike on September 18 — for the first time since 2007 — at 97%.

At the same time, investor demand for gold is strengthening. According to the World Gold Council, gold-backed exchange-traded funds bought a net 121 t of metal in August versus 23 t in July. The bulk of inflows came from North America and Europe. From the July low, cumulative net inflows into gold ETFs reached about 102 t.

Gold inventories at the largest exchanges total around 15.1 million ounces. They rose 6.4% from the early-August cyclical low but remain nearly 38% below the record 24.25 million ounces recorded in April 2025. According to Freedom Broker, the physical market still remains relatively tight.

Additional support for prices comes from rising production costs. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for producing an ounce of gold, including sustaining capital expenditures, at the 90th percentile in Q2 2026 were around $2 600 per ounce. Analysts allow for the показатель to rise to $3 000 in 2027.

Platinum received the most positive assessment

Freedom Broker raised its platinum price forecast for Q3 from $1 700 to $1 800 per ounce. At the current price of $1 798, analysts expect the average price to climb to $2 200 in Q4 2026. The same level is built into the forecasts for 2027 and 2028. The firm’s view of the metal remains positive.

The Q3 palladium forecast was raised from $1 300 to $1 350 per ounce at the current price of $1 324. For Q4, analysts expect $1 900, and for 2027 and 2028 — $2 000 per ounce.

At the same time, large speculators’ positions in the two metals differ. In platinum, they maintain a net long position of about 15 000 contracts. Money managers’ positioning in palladium has turned moderately net short for the first time and stands at around -4 600 contracts.

Deficit supports copper, but a correction is possible in Q4

Freedom Broker raised its copper forecast by $0.10 per pound. At the current price of $6.47, analysts expect $6.50 in Q3 but allow for a moderate correction to $6.20 in Q4 2026. The average price forecast for 2027 is $6.93 and for 2028 — $7.80 per pound. The view on the metal remains positive.

Aluminum forecast lowered

The most notable revision affected aluminum: the Q3 forecast was cut from $3 700 to $3 250 per ton. The current price is $3 274. For Q4, Freedom Broker expects $3 600; the average forecast for 2027 is $3 638 and for 2028 — $4 013 per ton.

Expectations for aluminum remain neutral amid relatively high physical inventories. The iron ore forecast was lowered by $2, to $98 per ton in Q3. For Q4, analysts expect $95; for 2027 — $88; and for 2028 — $85 per ton. The view on iron ore remains negative.

The forecast for thermal coal was left unchanged, while the estimate for coking coal was reduced by $10 per ton. For thermal coal, Freedom Broker expects $135 in Q3 and $130 in Q4 2026; for coking coal — $240 and $250 per ton, respectively.

Not an individual investment recommendation.