Freedom cut its price target for Nucor (NYSE: NUE) shares from $305 to $285, and lowered its rating from “Buy” to “Hold.” The new target implies upside potential of about 7.5% versus the price of $265.14 at the time of the analysis.
Nucor is the largest steel producer in North America and one of the leading scrap metal recyclers. The company produces flat-rolled and long products, rebar, steel structures, and other products for construction, the automotive industry, energy, and industrial markets.
Nucor’s outlook came in below expectations
Nucor expects diluted earnings per share in Q3 2026 to be $5.55–5.65. The midpoint of the range—$5.60—implies year-over-year growth of 113% versus $2.63 in the same period of 2025.
Despite the strong annual динамика, the forecast came in noticeably below Freedom’s previous estimate of $7.54 per share. Market consensus, according to various sources, was in the range of $5.99–6.20. After the outlook was released, Nucor shares fell by about 2.1% in premarket trading.
Freedom analyst Vitaliy Kononov considers this reaction overly negative. Positive momentum in the stock could persist thanks to high steel prices and Nucor management’s traditionally cautious approach to forecasting results.
The company regularly beats its own guidance
Since Q4 2016, Nucor’s actual profit has, on average, exceeded management guidance by 13%, with a median beat of 11%. This suggests the company may once again deliver a stronger result.
Freedom lowered its Q3 earnings forecast for Nucor to $6.45 per share. The estimate for full-year 2026 now stands at $20.55 per share. Both figures incorporate management’s more cautious guidance; however, analysts’ quarterly estimate still exceeds the upper end of the company’s range.
Additional support for the business comes from the rise in hot-rolled steel prices to about $1300 per short ton—the highest since Q2 2022. This trend helps sustain strong results in the steelmaking segment through year-end.
Nucor increased its share buyback
Since the start of Q3, Nucor has repurchased about 2.03 million of its own shares at an average price of $247.04. That is roughly double the average quarterly buyback volume in 2024–2025.
Including dividends, the company has returned about $1.36 billion to shareholders since the start of the year. Key risks highlighted by analysts include a potential decline in plant utilization, the launch of new production capacity in the industry, weakening steel prices, and changes in U.S. tariff policy.
Nucor plans to report Q3 results after the market close on October 26, 2026.
Nucor expands its business and remains dependent on steel prices
Previously, Freedom Broker wrote about the cyclicality of Nucor’s business: the company’s financial results largely depend on steel prices and shipment volumes. At the same time, the producer is investing in business expansion and the development of less cyclical areas, including the production of structures for energy and transportation infrastructure.
In April 2024, Nucor reported a decline in quarterly profit and revenue. The figures were pressured by weaker demand and margin compression. Support for U.S. steel producers later came from higher domestic prices and stronger tariff protection for the market.
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