Freedom maintained its “Buy” rating on AngloGold Ashanti after a weak quarter

A production rebound in Q4 could support AngloGold Ashanti’s (AU) results after weak earnings, according to Freedom Broker analysts Vitaliy Kononov and Medina Abdullina. They maintained their “Buy” rating and a $111.50 price target. The key condition for improving performance, the experts say, is higher output and lower costs per ounce.

AngloGold Ashanti is an international gold mining company with a diversified portfolio of mines. In addition to operating assets, it is developing projects in Nevada. Cash proceeds from mining enable the company to fund business expansion and shareholder payouts.

Lower output weighed on results

According to the report for Q3 2026, revenue from product sales totaled $2.62bn—7% below Freedom’s forecast of $2.82bn.

Gold production fell 9% year on year to 696k ounces. The decline was mainly driven by the Iduapriem, Obuasi, and Sukari mines. A higher average realized price only partially offset the impact of lower sales volumes.

EBITDA—earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation—increased 12% year on year to $1.57bn. However, the figure was 16% below Freedom’s estimate of $1.87bn.

Costs per ounce increased

Total cash costs rose 25% year on year to $1,534 per ounce. All-in sustaining costs, which include expenses to maintain ongoing production, increased 26% to $2,170 per ounce.

Part of the increase was linked to payments tied to the price of gold. Lower output added further pressure: fixed costs were spread over a smaller volume of production.

Free cash flow decreased 22% year on year to $722m due to higher capital expenditures and taxes. At the same time, cash exceeded debt by $1.26bn. In Freedom’s view, this financial position supports the company’s ability to invest in development.

Maintaining guidance does not yet guarantee a strong Q4

Management reaffirmed full-year production guidance in the range of 2.80–3.17m ounces. Over nine months, the company produced about 2.16m ounces.

To reach the lower end, it needs roughly 636k ounces in Q4—less than in Q3. Therefore, the analysts emphasize that simply maintaining guidance does not necessarily imply an acceleration in production.

To reach the midpoint of the range, about 821k ounces will be required, or roughly 18% more quarter on quarter. Management is counting on access to higher-grade ore at Iduapriem and Sukari, as well as increased output at Obuasi.

Freedom estimates that confirmation of these improvements would be a more meaningful positive factor for the stock than unchanged full-year guidance.

Why Freedom maintains a positive view

The analysts link AngloGold Ashanti’s long-term outlook to the recovery of operating mines, production expansion, and development of projects in Nevada. The main risks are project delays, rising costs, and falling gold prices.

Previously, Freedom Broker initiated coverage of AngloGold Ashanti with a “Buy” rating. In the new report, the experts maintained a positive view but emphasized the need to confirm volume recovery and improvements in unit costs.

This is not an individual investment recommendation.