Двухнедельный обзор фондовых рынков №317. «Медвежий» капкан Трампа

Trade Thesis

Buy the SLV 55 Put as a tactical bet on a further silver correction. SLV is trading below its 200-day moving average, while the IV/HV ratio is around 0.88: implied volatility has declined, but realized volatility remains stable. This makes the long put relatively inexpensive while downside risk remains elevated. IV/HV is near 0.88, with the decline driven mainly by lower IV. A renewed selloff could benefit the position through both delta and a rebound in implied volatility.

Key Arguments

• SLV is below its 200-day moving average, signaling a weaker medium-term technical trend.
• High interest rates and a firm U.S. dollar remain headwinds for precious metals, while industrial silver demand faces pressure from thrifting and substitution in solar applications.
  Risks: lower interest rates, a weaker U.S. dollar, stronger investment demand for silver, persistent physical-market deficits, and time decay if SLV trades sideways.

Risk Management

SLV > $55 at expiration: maximum loss of $345. $51.55–55: partial loss. SLV < $51.55: profit at expiration. Target premium: $6.00 (+74%).

Trade Parameters

Profit/Loss Chart and Key Trade Levels