Двухнедельный обзор фондовых рынков №317. «Медвежий» капкан Трампа

Nouveau Monde Graphite (NMG) is a Canadian developer of graphite mining projects and battery-materials production. The company’s investment appeal rests on the build-out of non-China supply chains, government support, and long-term offtake agreements, including a seven-year concentrate supply contract with the Government of Canada and an anode-material agreement with Panasonic. The key driver is construction of the mine, with production expected to start in late 2028. Additional upside comes from processing graphite into battery materials. However, financing for the processing plant is not yet secured, and the credit facility for the mine still requires final closing. Key risks include shareholder dilution, graphite prices, and Chinese export restrictions.

Hold rating; 12M TP of $1.48.

IDT Corporation (IDT) is a provider of telecommunications services, digital money transfers, and business technology solutions. The company’s investment appeal rests on a growing share of high-margin businesses, which already account for more than half of segment adjusted EBITDA. In FY26, adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to $154.6m. The key drivers are the expansion of payment and advertising services for retailers, along with growth in digital remittances and cloud communications. Additional upside comes from AI automation in money transfers, which allows operations to scale without a comparable increase in costs. That said, investment in new products may weigh on near-term profitability. Key risks include tighter U.S. immigration policy, competition, financial-services regulation, and the decline of the legacy telecom business.

Buy rating; 12M TP of $85.

Legacy Education (LGCY) operates educational institutions that train professionals for the Health Care sector. The company’s investment appeal rests on steady demand for medical personnel, expanding academic programs, and improving profitability. The key drivers are the launch of the Houston campus and a growing share of longer, higher-priced programs. Management aims to bring Houston enrollment to 400–600 students within one to two years. Additional upside comes from the lifting of enrollment restrictions and potential acquisitions. That said, tighter admission requirements have temporarily reduced new enrollment, and spending on new campuses is holding back near-term earnings growth. Key risks include regulatory approvals, the availability of student financing, intensifying competition, and a weaker cash flow position.

Buy rating; 12M TP of $14.50.

National Presto Industries (NPK) is a U.S. manufacturer of ammunition and a supplier of housewares and fire-safety products, with its core business concentrated in the defense segment. The company’s investment appeal rests on the replenishment of military stockpiles and a defense backlog of $1.81bn. Its subsidiary AMTEC is the sole prime contractor to the U.S. Army on the current 40mm ammunition contract. The key growth driver is contract execution amid higher plant utilization and manufacturing efficiency. Additional upside comes from capacity expansion and new programs for producing warheads. That said, earnings growth depends on delivery timing and cost control. Key risks include the U.S. defense budget, fixed-price contracts, and tariff pressure on housewares.

Hold rating; 12M TP of $162.