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Telecom Armenia: 1-Year Stock Trends

 

ACBA Bank: 1-Year Stock Trends

USD/AMD: 1-Year Dynamics

During the period from September 23 to October 7, 2025, Acba Bank (ACBA) shares grew by 2.8%. One factor that may have bolstered market sentiment is the assignment of a Ba3 rating (stable outlook) to the bank’s long-term deposits by Moody’s. This level aligns with Armenia’s sovereign rating. However, since a similar rating was assigned to the bank by Fitch in 2024, the impact on the company’s shares has been subdued. In contrast, shares of Telecom Armenia (AMTL) saw a 4.1% correction, keeping within the range formed since early September.

The 3-Year Corporate (AMD) Bond price index declined by 0.1%. However, the head of the Central Bank highlighted a reduction in country risk, as the spreads on Eurobonds issued by Armenian entities decreased more substantially (by approximately 15–20 basis points) compared to those in other EM countries. Looking ahead, progress in signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan could enhance Armenia’s risk profile and positively impact the fair value and prices of the country’s financial instruments.

The exchange rate of the Armenian dram against the U.S. dollar has remained largely the same. According to the statistics for the past month, there has been a recovery in net remittance inflows from individuals into the country, which increased by 34% y/y and 5.3 times m/m. Nevertheless, this has not significantly affected the dram’s exchange rate, likely due to trends in foreign trade and the potential continuation of currency interventions by the regulator, which, according to statistics available, purchased approximately $750 million in the open market within the first seven months of the year.

Economic Updates

Between September 23 and October 7, 2025, a lot of key Armenian macroeconomic data was released. The country’s exports were slightly weaker compared to the previous month, while imports remained relatively stable. Meanwhile, economic activity for August exhibited consistent growth, albeit slightly below expectations. September’s inflation rate, on the other hand, remained within the target range, deviating just slightly from the forecast value.

• In August, Armenia’s exports experienced a steep decline of 40.8% y/y (vs. -14% y/y in July), dropping by 16.5% m/m. Imports decreased by 28.3% y/y (vs. -16% y/y in July) but rose by 12.1% from the previous month. This might suggest some recovery in domestic demand, partly supported by robust growth in tourism in recent months. Overall, the statistics present mixed signals, likely due to one-time factors, making it premature to infer changes in the country’s foreign trade conditions. However, the sharp annual decrease can largely be attributed to the high base effect of the previous year.
• Economic activity in Armenia increased by 7.5% y/y in August 2025, slightly below the expected 9.7% growth, and rose by 5.4% compared to July. The construction sector was the primary driver of this growth, with a notable increase of 21.1% y/y and 19.4% m/m, highlighting persistently high investment interest in real estate. Industrial production also showed positive trends, rising by 5.8% y/y and 10.7% m/m, and confirming the manufacturing sector’s ongoing recovery from recession. Overall, these dynamics suggest favorable economic trends in the country, despite the actual figures falling slightly short of forecasts.
• In September 2025, Armenia’s consumer market saw an inflation rate of 3.7% y/y (vs. expected 3.9%). Compared to August, prices rose by 0.3%. Food price growth accelerated to 5.8% y/y, up from 4.9% a month ago, driven by global food price trends. According to projections by the EDB, Armenia’s inflation will remain within the Central Bank’s target range of 3% ± 1 percentage point this year.

Corporate News

• Helix, a chain of medical labs from Russia, is planning to establish a network of ten diagnostic centers along with a laboratory complex in Armenia. The company has already signed an agreement with the franchisee. The investment will be approximately $1.6 million.

Two-Week Outlook

Between September 10 and 20, no major macroeconomic data releases are anticipated in the country. However, revised or updated statistics on previously published indicators may be published, which are not expected to significantly influence the assessment of the current economic environment.

The primary event slightly beyond this timeframe is the release of September’s retail sales figures. An acceleration in sales for the month is anticipated, given positive trends in tourist inflows and indirect signals of robust domestic consumption.

In general, macroeconomic trends in Armenia remain favorable. If stable inflation within the target range and high economic activity persist, they are likely to enhance the appeal of local capital markets. This comes amid ongoing discussions about a potential peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Concurrently, current macroeconomic statistics limit the possibility of significant monetary policy easing in the short term. We do not foresee any changes in the Central Bank’s refinancing rate over the next two months. The EDB predicts that the rate will stay at its current level until the end of 2025, whereas the World Bank projects a rate cut by 50 basis points to 6.25% within a year.