Двухнедельный обзор фондовых рынков №348. Сезонная рокировка

Trading opened Friday for SpaceX (SPCX) in a landmark listing, with the company raising $75bn at $135/sh at a $1.77tn valuation. The deal immediately set a new global benchmark for primary issuance size, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29.4bn record by >2.5x. Demand was extraordinary: the order book reportedly exceeded $250bn (~4x oversubscribed), with retail participation alone north of $100bn.

Retail allocation was capped at ~20% of the deal, while free float remains structurally limited at just 3–4% of total equity. Secondary market indicators pointed to extreme initial pricing tension, with OTC indications implying a $1.9–2.4tn valuation range at open and prediction markets pricing ~70% probability of a first-day close >$2tn. Index reclassification dynamics were a key technical driver. 

Nasdaq removed the prior 10% free-float requirement, enabling accelerated inclusion pathways. Additions are expected across CRSP and S&P TMI (June 18), Russell and MSCI (June 26), and Nasdaq-100 (July 6), implying ~$30bn of systematic demand versus a ~$75bn tradable float. S&P 500 inclusion, however, remains blocked by profitability and seasoning requirements, including the need for ≥12 months of public trading, while the company remains loss-making (reported -$4.3bn in Q1). 

In derivatives and listed products, European exchanges simultaneously launched structured exposure products, with leveraged funds and options scheduled from June 16—effectively pre-building liquidity infrastructure into the listing. In post-listing trading, SPCX opened at $150, traded up to $176.52 intraday, and closed at $161.11—~+20% vs IPO price. Market capitalization ended the session at ~$2.1tn, positioning SpaceX as the 6th-largest U.S. company by valuation, with the print also marking a historic wealth milestone for Elon Musk above the $1tn threshold.

The key near-term risk for this “celebration phase” over the next 6–12 months is less about fundamentals and more about technicals and supply overhang. Historically, U.S. tech IPOs show strong initial momentum—median first-day performance has been ~+36%—but tend to retrace meaningfully, with ~20% drawdowns from offer price over the first year, highlighting the gap between launch hype and post-lock-up reality.

That dynamic is set to be amplified here by a staggered unlock profile, with early shareholder sell restrictions beginning to roll off from Q4 2026 reporting onward, gradually increasing free float supply. On fundamentals, the equity story remains heavily concentrated: Starlink is effectively the only scaled, profitable anchor today, with 10.3m subscribers, $11.4bn revenue, and ~$7bn operating profit—making it the sole earnings engine within the broader ecosystem. At the same time, forward expectations are extremely stretched. 

Elon Musk’s long-term narrative targets ~$1tn revenue by end-2030, implying >50x growth versus current annualized revenue over ~5 years. More recently, large-scale compute and infrastructure commitments have emerged as a potential bridge to that trajectory: Anthropic is reported to be paying $1.25bn/month for compute through 2029, while Google has committed $920m/month over a 32-month period—together implying >$26bn annual contracted revenue visibility, already above the company’s total 2025 revenue base. On our estimates, the AI segment only reaches profitability around 2029, with potential revenue contribution rising to ~$220bn by 2030. Structurally, the key differentiator versus peers remains full-stack vertical integration. 

SpaceX is explicitly targeting a ~99% reduction in cost per kg to orbit, which—post-2030—would materially expand the addressable universe of space-enabled industries. In effect, investors in SPCX are not underwriting a traditional aerospace business, but a long-duration infrastructure platform for the next decade of industrial buildout. That positioning inherently requires a >10-year investment horizon, with execution risk concentrated less in demand and more in scale, monetization timing, and supply dynamics.