Двухнедельный обзор фондовых рынков №348. Сезонная рокировка

Trade Thesis

An aggressive bet on AST SpaceMobile recovering after the recent sell-off in space-related stocks via an $85-strike call option. The decline appears partly linked to the SpaceX public market debut under the SPCX ticker and capital rotation within the space sector. At the same time, ASTS's own investment case does not appear broken: the company still has a near-term launch catalyst, FCC authorization, partnerships with major mobile operators and elevated short interest.

Key Arguments

• The sell-off after SPCX may be more about capital rotation than a fundamental break in the story. SpaceX became a new public focal point in the space sector, which likely encouraged some investors to take profits in ASTS and other publicly traded space names. This creates short-term pressure, but it does not eliminate the longer-term direct-to-device satellite connectivity thesis.
• The upcoming BlueBird 8-10 launch remains the key catalyst. If the launch is successful and the company confirms the network deployment schedule, the market may partially rebuild confidence after the recent volatility. For this trade, this is the main event-driven catalyst over the next several weeks.
• Elevated short interest can amplify the upside move. According to fresh Finviz data, short float is above 30%. This is not a standalone reason to buy the stock, but it is an important amplifier: if positive news arrives, part of the short base may be forced to cover, adding momentum to the upside.

Risk Managеment

If ASTS closes above $85 but below $102.05 at expiration on 08/21/2026, the investor will realize a partial loss depending on the final stock price. If the stock closes below $85, the maximum loss equals the premium paid — $1,705. If the stock closes above the breakeven of $102.05, the position becomes profitable. The base case is to hold until the target premium of $30.00 is reached.
Key risks include a launch delay or technical issues with the satellites, stronger competition from SpaceX/Starlink, further pressure across the space sector and high volatility in ASTS. The August option already carries a high premium, so the trade requires a meaningful move higher in the underlying stock; if the stock trades sideways, time decay will work against the position.

Trade parameters

P/L of the Option Strategy