Двухнедельный обзор фондовых рынков №326. Между двух огней

In recent months, the U.S. dollar has exhibited notable weakness, having depreciated by more than 10% since the beginning of 2025. This trend has been driven by geopolitical uncertainties and questionable initiatives, including Trump’s harsh statements about the Fed and the additional increase in leverage due to the adoption of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which have heightened investor anxiety and diminished the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Nevertheless, reports from the U.S. Treasury Department indicate a steady demand for Treasury bonds from foreign investors, particularly during times of escalation. In mid-June, during the peak of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the dollar index (DXY) strengthened by approximately 0.4%, reaffirming the U.S. dollar’s role as a defensive asset alongside the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Additionally, the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasuries, at around 4.4%, marks the highest level since August 2007, rendering them an attractive alternative that compensates for currency and market risks.

The U.S. accounts for over 40% of the global highly liquid government bonds market; no other jurisdiction offers a comparable “liquidity pool.” This is the main reason why the dollar will retain its status as a reserve currency for the foreseeable future. While a slow shift toward currency diversification may be for sure anticipated within the next 10-15 years, there are currently no viable alternatives. Globally, reserves consist of just under 20% in euros, approximately 6% in Japanese yen, less than 5% in British pounds, just over 2.5% in Canadian dollars, and slightly more than 2% in Australian dollars. The market depth outside the U.S. dollar and euro is immediately estimable, although the euro itself faces challenges, including a fragmented debt market and political risks within the EU, which constrain capital flows. Additionally, the RTGS infrastructure of central banks, with Fedwire in the U.S. and TARGET2 in Europe providing unmatched speed and reliability, may pose a risk, as the market infrastructure for other currencies cannot yet handle such a large volume of assets, and it will take decades for this to change.

Practical Tips for the Long-Term Investor:

• The S&P 500’s technology sector, known for its high margins and share buybacks, continues to draw investor interest. Over the medium term (2-5 years), a diversified portfolio that includes technology, financials, industrials, and utilities could be advantageous.
• Given negative real rates on ten-year U.S. government bonds and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, it’s advisable to increase the gold allocation in your portfolio to 10%. Once rates normalize, consider reducing this proportion to 2-5% in favor of cash or short-term T-Bills, which can later be reallocated to high-risk fast-growing companies.
• International markets offer compelling opportunities. In Latin America, Brazil and Mexico appear promising. In Europe, Germany and Italy are garnering attention, while in Asia, Japan is set to continue reaching historical highs. Country-specific ETFs remain the optimal avenues for investing outside the U.S.

In conclusion, despite current challenges the U.S. dollar is facing, its position in the global economy remains robust. Over the coming years, the dollar will continue to be the primary reserve currency. Therefore, it’s advisable not to completely divest from American assets in your portfolio. Instead, consider diversifying with international assets as a sound strategy.