Investment Review №334. Customer return

Vadim Merkulov

Vadim Merkulov

Head of Analytics department

DXP Enterprises. Riding the wave

Modernization of industrial infrastructure in the US will ensure DXPE shares reach their target

US Investment Idea

О компании

DXP Enterprises, Inc. (DXPE-US) is a leading US industrial distributor focused on maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) solutions for the oil and gas, water and wastewater, chemical, manufacturing, construction, and power generation markets. The company offers a broad portfolio of products and services, including pumps and other rotating equipment, bearings and power transmission systems, metalworking supplies, and industrial safety means and services.

Ticker DXPE
Share price as of analysis $96,50
Target share price $121
Growth potential 25,4%

 

Share price dynamics vs. indices Day Week Month Quarter Year
DXPE 4,1%  3,3%  (19,3%) (20,5%) 31,0% 
S&P 500 0,2%  0,9%  (0,2%) 6,5%  12,9% 
Russell 2000 (0,2%) (0,0%) (0,6%) 4,8%  1,3% 
DJ Industrial Average 0,4%  0,8%  (0,2%) 4,8%  6,0% 
NASDAQ Composite Index 0,6%  1,7%  (1,3%) 10,0%  20,7% 

 

Price dynamics DXPE, $

 

 

Key Investment Thesis

  • Structural growth in US infrastructure and industrial markets. A multi-year reindustrialization and infrastructure renewal cycle is underway in the U.S., supported by large government programs, private capital, and the ongoing localization of production. In 2025, more than $238 billion was invested in the construction and modernization of manufacturing infrastructure, indicating a sustained shift of capital toward the real economy rather than a one-off surge. These projects are highly capital-intensive and involve long-lived assets, which structurally increases demand for ongoing maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) support. A distinct tailwind for DXPE’s pumping business is the US water infrastructure renewal cycle. The ASCE estimates total investment needs in potable water and wastewater / stormwater systems at roughly $1.65 trillion for 2024–2033 (about $670 billion for potable water and $983 billion for waste- and stormwater), with a significant portion still unfunded. Even partially closing this gap would likely accelerate the construction and modernization of pumping stations, water treatment plants, and wastewater facilities.
  • M&A-driven strategy in the pumps business. DXP is building scale in the pumps and compressors segment through a suite of small, but regular acquisitions. In recent years the company has consistently closed several deals annually, and year-to-date it has already acquired five businesses, expanding its footprint in water, wastewater, and adjacent industrial niches. These acquisitions are integrated into the Innovative Pumping Solutions segment, now a key growth engine and a demand catalyst for the company’s MRO line. Each sold or engineered pump package converts into a multi-year stream of revenue from maintenance, parts, and upgrade, increasing the share of recurring revenue and enhancing the durability of the model.
  • Attractive valuation and technical setup. Following the recent pullback, DXPE trades at roughly 14x NTM P/E versus ~20x previously, representing a notable discount to both its own history and peers (XYL at ~23x, GWW at ~22x), despite solid top- and bottom-line growth. Technically, the stock looks constructive: after the broader market rebound, DXPE shares held long-term trend support and advanced in an impulsive move, which, in our view, increases the probability of further upside.

We see roughly 25% upside in DXPE stock to our $121 price target. We rate the shares “Buy” and recommend a stop-loss around $80.

Ratio Analysis 2022А 2023А 2024А 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
ROE 0% 18% 18% 20% 24% 23% 21% 20%
ROA 0% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 8%
ROCE 10% 14% 8% 14% 15% 15% 15% 14%
Sales/Assets 0,0x 4,5x 4,5x 4,4x 4,2x 3,7x 3,2x 2,8x
Interest Coverage 3,4x 2,6x 2,3x 3,1x 4,1x 4,2x 4,4x 4,6x
Margins, % 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
Gross margin 28% 30% 31% 32% 32% 32% 33% 33%
EBITDA margin 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11%
Net profit margin 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Financials, $mln 2022А 2023А 2024А 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
Revenue  1 481   1 679   1 802   2 018   2 210   2 365   2 555   2 756 
Cost of goods sold  1 059   1 173   1 246   1 378   1 500   1 597   1 716   1 841 
Gross profit  422   506   556   640   710   768   839   915 
SG&A  325   367   411   464   503   532   569   606 
Operating profit  98   139   145   177   207   236   271   309 
Interest expense (income)  29   53   63   57   50   56   61   67 
Profit before tax  66   87   85   122   159   183   211   243 
Tax  18   18   15   31   33   38   44   51 
Net profit  48   69   70   91   126   145   167   192 
Earnings per share (diluted) $2,47 $3,89 $4,22 $5,51 $7,41 $8,47 $9,74 $11,18
Dividend per share - - - - - - - -
 

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