Investment Review №353. In Search of New Landmarks

Telecom Armenia Stock Performance (Post-IPO)

ACBA Bank: 1-Year Stock Trends 

USD/AMD: 1-Year Dynamics

3-Year Corporate Bond Index (AMD) – Post-Update

Between August 24 and September 7, 2026, Armenian equities retraced part of their previous correction. Telecom Armenia (AMTL) rose a modest 0.4% over the period, while Acba Bank gained 1.2%, taking its YTD return to 33.7%. The market likely drew support from July economic activity data, which showed 6.5% YoY growth and reinforced the view that domestic momentum remains resilient.

In the fixed-income market, the price index for 3Y corporate bonds rose 0.2%, supported by the recent pickup in domestic bond-market activity and stable inflation. August CPI came in line with market expectations at 4.4% YoY, implying relatively stable real yields. The dram strengthened a further 0.6% against the U.S. dollar despite a record July trade deficit of $699.1m—the widest since records began in 2003. The divergence between FX performance and external trade dynamics is notable and likely reflects continued strength in tourism (+6.0% YoY over 7M26) and foreign remittance inflows (+36.6% YoY over 7M26), with outflows rising only 1.5% YoY.

Economic Updates

Between August 24 and September 7, 2026, a broad set of July macro data was released, alongside August inflation figures. The key takeaways were a record trade deficit and confirmation that economic activity remains on a solid growth trajectory.

Armenia’s economic activity rose 6.5% YoY and 4.6% MoM in July 2026, keeping growth close to 2Q GDP growth of 6.7% YoY. Construction remained the key engine, surging 26.5% YoY, while domestic trade turnover slipped 0.1% YoY. The resilience of activity is an early signal that the EDB’s more bullish 6.0% FY26 GDP growth forecast could prove closer to reality than S&P’s more conservative 4.9% call.

Armenia’s trade deficit widened sharply to $699.1m in July from $360.3m YoY—the largest on record since 2003. Imports jumped 21.5% YoY, while exports fell 15.7%. The YTD picture is similarly weak: exports are down 7.9%, while imports are up 7.7%. The widening imbalance reinforces our earlier concerns over the impact of Russia’s restrictions on imports of Armenian goods. So far, however, the hit to the AMD has remained limited, likely cushioned by strong remittance inflows and a meaningful pickup in tourism.

Armenia’s CPI rose 4.4% YoY in August 2026, fully in line with market expectations, and 0.2% MoM. Inflation remains above the CBA’s 3% ±1pp target range, but the print contained no upside surprise. With price pressures broadly stable, we see a low probability of a policy tightening at the next meeting. That said, persistently elevated inflation keeps the risk of a CBA response alive over the short-to-medium term.

Armenia’s PPI eased to 8.5% YoY in July, a 3M low, from 8.8% in June. On a MoM basis, however, PPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% from 0.2%, pointing to a potential renewed pickup in upstream price pressures.

Corporate News

Cube Invest announced a AMD5bn bond offering on AMX (ISIN AMCUBIB21ER1), with a 10.5% yield, 36-month maturity and semi-annual coupon payments. The offering will run from September 11 through November 11, 2026.

Two-Week Outlook

Between September 11 and 21, the key market event will be the CBA’s refinancing-rate decision. oth our expectations and market consensus point to it being held at 6.5%, given that August inflation came in line with expectations and economic growth remains broadly consistent with the EDB’s forecast. At the same time, the record trade deficit is likely to remain on investors’ radar as a key medium-term risk to the dram and, more broadly, to GDP growth.