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DFM General Index: 1-Year Dynamics

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Index: 1-Year Dynamics

Brent Oil, 1-Year Dynamics

Between September 8 and 22, UAE equities gained despite falling oil and rising geopolitical tension. The DFMGI rose from 5,947 to 5,997 points (+0.8%), the ADXGI climbed from 10,021 to 10,232 points (+2.1%), while the S&P 500 advanced from 7,674 to 7,765 points (+1.2%). Brent crude fell from $106 to $99 per barrel (−6.4%), weighing on the Energy sector.

Real Estate (+3.43%; Emaar +4.68%, Aldar +2.94%) and Financials (+2.60%; ADCB +6.63%, Waha Capital +4.95%, IHC +3.01%) led gains. Communication Services and Industrials each added 0.29%, and Energy rose 0.28%. Consumer Staples fell (−1.79%), along with Utilities (−0.54%) and Consumer Discretionary (−0.49%). The pattern points to continued demand for large-cap banks and developers, alongside weakness in defensive and oil-linked names.

UAE proxy bond yields fell from 5.66% to 5.62% (−4bps), while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.90% to 5.07% (+17bps). The spread narrowed from 76bps to 55bps, reflecting improved relative risk perception of the UAE even as the global risk-free rate rose.

Economic Updates

In lockstep with the Fed, the UAE central bank hiked its overnight deposit rate by 25bps to 3.9%. The move supports bank margins but raises funding costs and could dampen credit demand.

The UAE plans to invest an additional €40bn in Germany. Companies from the two countries signed 29 agreements worth over €9.4bn, including data-center projects with combined capacity of ~1GW. The initiative expands the UAE's investment in digital infrastructure and asset diversification.

Authorities are revising the architecture of the ~5GW AI campus in Abu Dhabi in favor of a distributed network of more secure data centers. The first phase of Stargate UAE—a $30bn, 1GW project—remains in place, with the initial 200MW expected online in 2026. The new approach could raise capital costs but reduce concentration and operational risk in the infrastructure.

Corporate News

Emaar Properties' board approved a special dividend of $0.14 per share on top of regular payouts. The decision requires shareholder and regulatory approval. Over the period, Emaar shares rose 4.68%, supporting the real estate sector.

Emaar's hotel occupancy in Dubai has recovered to roughly 60% after falling to 20–25% from a pre-crisis level of 83%; full normalization is expected within 12 months. The company's CEO has flagged a possible ~5% decline in Dubai property prices in 2026, though Emaar's contracted sales backlog exceeds $50bn, providing strong visibility into future revenue.

IHC confirmed a restructuring that will make Fount Trust the ultimate parent entity of Royal Group. IHC shares rose 4.8% on September 18 and fell 4.6% on September 21, ending the period up 3.01% overall. The volatility reflected market reaction to the change in the control structure.

Two-Week Outlook

The key factor for the UAE market will remain the regional situation, including the recovery of oil supply from Saudi Arabia and the security of transport infrastructure. Fresh attacks on oil facilities and delays in restarting the East-West pipeline could support prices, while normalized supply and reduced attack intensity would weigh on them. The oil complex is getting additional support from a shortage of refined products ahead of the seasonal pickup in demand. The market will remain sensitive to news on supply and diplomatic efforts.

Elevated volatility is likely to persist primarily in energy and logistics. Rising geopolitical risk would support oil prices while also raising operational and transport risk. If tensions ease, investor attention could shift toward domestic-demand sectors with stable cash flows. High rates continue to support returns in the financial sector, but they also raise the cost of financing for the broader economy and real estate.