Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% yesterday by the end of the session, starting to drop sharply in the last hour of trading. The Fed left rates unchanged, and Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that the regulator’s decision is not a sign of central-bank inertia, which, in his words, is determined to fight price pressures. In addition, Warsh hinted at greater market autonomy, saying the regulator is stepping away from further rate guidance, while “participants will learn to play ball rather than obey the referee.” On the other hand, this increased uncertainty and volatility in the market, and the S&P 500 VIX volatility index rose 13.5% yesterday to 20.65. After the market close, attention shifted to corporate reports: Meta Platforms and Qualcomm presented weak profit forecasts for the current quarter. Meta shares fell 7.45% in postmarket trading, while Qualcomm lost 4.4% in the main session and another 4.7% after it ended. Microsoft rose 8.9% in the postmarket, as the company’s cloud division showed the fastest growth pace in four years. This morning, sentiment in Asia is calmer than yesterday. The South Korean government tightened restrictions on the use of leveraged ETFs after the Kospi index plunged 16% over the previous two sessions. Oil rose 6.1% yesterday and is adding another 1.4% today, reaching $89.4 per barrel of Brent. The Wall Street Journal reports that the US has prepared a plan for an air campaign against Iran предусматривающий intensive air strikes for 10–14 days. S&P 500 index futures are up 0.2% at the moment.
KASE Index. KASE rose 0.3% yesterday and moved even closer to the upper boundary of the sideways channel. Market activity remained low and was concentrated mainly in BCC shares.
Index stocks. BCC quotes rose 3.1% yesterday. We drew attention to these securities in the previous review, as the shares sharply broke out of a stable consolidation and returned to the levels of June 10. Now these levels act as important local resistance, and if they are breached, the opportunity opens for a rise toward 4800 tenge. Kazakhtelecom shares rose 1.2%, where buyers also became more active after the growth wave transitioned into local consolidation. From a technical standpoint, KZTK also has a chance to continue rising. The biggest decliners were Kazatomprom shares, which also fell on the LSE along with other uranium companies. At the same time, uranium itself has been showing a slow but steady rise over the past two weeks. On the LSE, the largest decline was shown by Halyk Bank GDRs, which are correcting after the July 17–21 rise and are testing support around the 50- and 100-day moving averages. Kaspi on Nasdaq tried to rise to $89.2, but pulled back amid instability in the US market.
Currency. Attempts by the dollar to rise above 477 tenge have so far been unsuccessful. Today, USDKZT quotes are slightly lower, to 474.8 tenge, and remain around the 50-day moving average. Note that the ruble continues to weaken: the USDRUB rate has already reached 79.8 rubles per dollar.