Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 opened lower, but recovered almost immediately and stayed near the flat line through the end of the session. Chipmakers remained under heavy pressure: Micron, AMD, Applied Materials and Lam Research shares fell 7–9%. At the same time, the rest of the market felt fairly solid, and if the S&P 500 were not weighed down by the large index weight of semiconductor companies, it could already have reached a record high. The industrial Dow Jones gained 1% on a strong start to the U.S. earnings season. Microsoft and Meta are due to report today, and Apple and Amazon.com tomorrow. In Europe, indices also rose, although this time the DAX ceded leadership to the UK’s FTSE 100. This morning in Asia, performance is mixed: China and Hong Kong indices are up, with the Hang Seng posting a confident rally and reaching its highest level since June 3. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi continue to fall sharply. The Kospi, which reflects sentiment in the technology sector and the semiconductor sub-sector, is down 6% after yesterday’s 10.8% drop. Today the market will be awaiting the outcome of the Fed meeting. Brent crude is trading at $84.7 per barrel this morning, up almost 2%. E-mini futures on the S&P 500 are up 0.2%.
KASE Index. KASE had a decent session yesterday, more active than the day before. Nevertheless, there was no meaningful increase in trading volumes, although they did reach a high for the last three sessions. At today’s open, index quotes continue to rise, adding 0.36% and moving closer to the upper boundary of the sideways channel.
Index stocks. The biggest gain yesterday was in Halyk Bank shares. The quotes stopped falling and edged up, although in the broader picture this did not lead to any material changes. More interesting was the rise in BCC shares, which added 1.2% yesterday and are up another 1.6% today. As a result, the stock is unexpectedly breaking out of a low-volatility sideways trend. The quotes have not yet broken through the key resistance level around 4,700 tenge, but such a spike still draws our attention. We also noted that after a brief pause, KMG shares have started to rise again, and they are now at all-time highs. On the LSE, the largest decline was in Kazatomprom GDRs, which fell 5.7% at once. The drop may also have been related to the record date for dividend payment, although for the GDRs the date of July 24 was indicated. On the other hand, negative pressure could also have come from other uranium-sector names, as industry ETFs fell 3.3–3.4% yesterday. Today on KASE the shares are down 1.1%, while on the LSE they are up 0.8%.
Currency. In USDKZT trading, the situation today remains the same as yesterday. The dollar has risen above the 50-day moving average, but we do not yet see a clear consolidation above it.