Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday’s session in global markets was not as positive as the day before. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, while the industrial Dow Jones gained 1.2% and closed at record highs. On the index map, the healthcare sector showed confident growth, while semiconductor manufacturers declined. Nvidia lost 3% after news that SoftBank unexpectedly sold its stake in the company for $5.8 billion. SoftBank’s CFO said the move was aimed at raising capital, without disclosing further details. A positive factor for the market remained the end of the government shutdown pause. Meanwhile, U.S. small business optimism fell to a six-month low in October. Five of the ten components that form the index declined, while four improved. In Europe, indices posted more notable gains — the Stoxx 600 continued its rally, rising 1.3% and updating historical highs. The main growth sector, as in the U.S., was healthcare. Germany’s DAX rose 1.1% but is still not close to its record highs. It was reported that German investor confidence unexpectedly declined, as the ZEW expectations index dropped to 38.5 in November. In Asia, moderate growth is seen this morning: the Hang Seng rose 0.7%, reaching monthly highs. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2%. Oil rose to $65 per barrel yesterday.
Bonds. U.S. government bonds did not trade yesterday. Corporate bonds saw slight gains.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed neutral after a strong previous session. Exporters — KMG and Kazatomprom — moved higher. The daily candle shows wicks due to intraday price swings.
Index Constituents. KMG rose 1.3%, and Kazatomprom gained 1.2%. In both cases, price fluctuations within the session led to wicks on the index’s daily candle. KZAP shares in the local market finished with a smaller gain than the GDRs two sessions earlier. However, in the latest LSE session, GDRs declined by 2.5% and remain in a volatile sideways channel. Unexpectedly high activity appeared in Kazakhtelecom shares: after falling 2.1% yesterday, they are up 3.4% today. KazTransOil shares look interesting near the support level of 820 tenge. Air Astana GDRs fell by 2.1%. The company’s quarterly revenue reached 235 billion tenge, 20% higher than in the same period in 2024. For the third consecutive quarter, the main revenue growth came from the Air Astana brand, whose quarterly income rose 24% YoY. Meanwhile, FlyArystan’s growth slightly slowed to 14% YoY. Overall revenue increased largely due to a 25% YoY rise in passenger transportation income. Maintenance expenses surged by 79% YoY because the company had to remove 14 defective Pratt & Whitney engines. As a result, quarterly net profit amounted to 11 billion tenge, 51% lower than in 2024.
Currency. The currency market remains unchanged. USDKZT is trading at 524.5 tenge and continues to form an upward divergence on the daily chart.