Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 once again failed to update its record highs yesterday. Prices declined during the session, showing a modest rebound before the close. The index heatmap indicated negative performance among several tech giants, a portion of software-focused IT companies, and the entire financial sector following a weak start to the earnings season marked by JP Morgan’s results. Four more major investment banks are set to report today and tomorrow. Industrial companies and the energy sector performed relatively better. US inflation for December 2025 came in at 2,7% year-on-year, in line with November’s level and analysts’ expectations. Core inflation stood at 0,2% month-on-month. Today, traders are awaiting a potential ruling from the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which destabilized markets after being announced in April. Asian markets are showing strong gains this morning, led by Japan and South Korea. Bitcoin rose to its highest level since November 16. Oil prices moved above $65 yesterday and are stabilizing today.
KASE Index. The KASE Index rose by 0,4% to 7,284.8 points. The daily candlestick shows that prices climbed close to the 7,300 level during the session, where a new resistance level formed, before retreating lower. This once again points to a local consolidation within a narrow range. Most likely, this dynamic will persist throughout the remainder of the week.
Index stocks. Kazatomprom shares were the top performers, following the previous 2,4% gain in its GDRs. On the local market, the stock showed stronger growth and once again began trading above its LSE counterparts, though only by 1,4%, which is a relatively modest premium. As mentioned in our previous review, prices were expected to reach the $67.3 level, which nearly occurred ($67.2 at the highs). However, Fibonacci resistance at that level pushed prices back down. We are changing our local recommendation from “buy” to “hold,” as we currently see sufficient strength at this resistance level to contain further GDR growth.
The largest decline was recorded in Kaspi.kz shares, both on KASE and Nasdaq. It appears that the $79 level is not yet able to hold back a new corrective wave in ADS. Notably, ADRs of Hepsiburada — the Turkish marketplace acquired by Kaspi — have been in an upward trend since November 19, gaining 27.3% over this period. Yesterday, these ADRs declined by 2.5%. KEGOC shares fell by 1.4%, transitioning from an active growth phase into a mirrored downward trend. Kazakhtelecom shares, which had begun to show signs of slowing growth, are up 0.66% at today’s session open and may continue the current upward wave.
Currency. This morning, the US dollar is showing signs of revival for the first time in five sessions. The USDKZT pair is fluctuating within the range of 510.8–511.7 tenge. As previously noted, we see limited upside or downside potential for the dollar this month. However, during the next tax period, strong support for the national currency may form.