Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose yesterday, reviving local expectations of a retest and renewal of historical highs, despite the arrest of Maduro increasing geopolitical tensions at the UN and sparking intense discussions about a potential similar military intervention by China in Taiwan. Within the index, the financial sector showed strong gains, with the sector ETF XLF jumping by 2.2%. Trump announced plans to revive Venezuela’s oil industry under U.S. leadership, which supported major oil companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil. U.S. manufacturing activity in December contracted at the fastest pace since 2024. The ISM manufacturing PMI declined from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below the 50 mark for the tenth consecutive month. Trading was highly favorable for commodities, which posted sharp gains the day before. Oil is trading this morning at $61.6 per barrel, lagging behind copper and gold in terms of momentum. Bloomberg reports that Venezuelan oil exports fell to a 17-month low in December. Asian equity indices are showing solid gains this morning, rising by 1.3–1.6%.
KASE Index. The Kazakh market started 2026 on a positive note, with the index rising by 1.3% in the first trading session. The index is approaching its November highs, where the recovery wave previously stalled at a resistance level around 7,200 points. To renew historical highs, the index needs to gain another 1.2%.
Index stocks. As expected, Kazatomprom followed its peers in the uranium sector with a slight delay. On the LSE, its prices surged by nearly 8%, delivering a strong rebound from the $50 level. From a technical perspective, we see local resistance at $62.5 for the GDRs and 31,300 tenge for the shares. The key question ahead is whether the stock can break through this strong resistance and update its historical highs. Among recent industry news, it is worth noting the U.S. Department of Energy’s announcement of allocating $900 million to Centrus Energy and two other nuclear fuel producers as part of efforts to revive domestic production and reduce reliance on enriched Russian uranium. KazTransOil shares posted the second-largest gain, recovering from previous declines while remaining in a local sideways trend. Growth continues in Kazakhtelecom shares: yesterday the stock rose by 1.3%, stabilizing after the highly volatile session on December 31. Despite an overbought RSI, prices may remain attractive to a limited extent as long as the upward wave persists. KMG is recovering after a prolonged decline, likely reacting to fluctuations in the USD/KZT exchange rate. On the LSE, Halyk Bank GDRs recovered from the previous decline and once again returned below the strong resistance level of $30. Kaspi ADS on Nasdaq remain in sideways consolidation.
Currency. In morning trading, the dollar is being restrained from further growth against the tenge following yesterday’s rebound. This currently favors a sideways triangle scenario rather than a breakout-driven rebound.