Our Comments and Expectations
External environment. The S&P 500 pulled back from its all-time highs yesterday, failing to extend the New Year rally. Nevertheless, forecasts for 2026 remain quite optimistic — according to Bloomberg, every Wall Street analyst is now predicting a market rally next year. Despite numerous risks, ranging from a potential slowdown in artificial intelligence development to unforeseen political shocks, the consensus forecast points to another average 9% increase in the S&P 500 next year. Donald Trump hinted that he has a preferred candidate for the position of the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, but is not rushing to make an announcement. Meanwhile, volatility swept through the metals market: gold and copper fell by 4.1–4.7%. The trigger was a more than 8% drop in silver after it had surpassed $80 per ounce during a rally driven by speculative trades and concerns over supply shortages. This morning, the situation has partially stabilized: silver is up 5.4%, while copper is gaining 2.5%. Oil prices rose as US-led negotiations on Ukraine failed to deliver a breakthrough and China pledged to support economic growth next year. European indices closed flat. In Asian markets, Chinese and Hong Kong indices are rebounding after yesterday’s decline. S&P 500 futures are trading flat this morning.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 4.12% yesterday, remaining close to local lows. Corporate bonds continue to trade in a sideways trend.
KASE Index. The KASE index has posted moderate declines for the second consecutive session, reflecting a pause after a short-lived rally. Trading volumes were slightly lower than in the previous session; however, the recent trend of declining trading activity has started to fade.
Index stocks. KEGOC shares were the top gainers yesterday. Previously a relatively calm stock, KEGOC turned into a steadily rising name in December, despite the absence of notable background news. For the current month, the shares are up just over 10%. In addition to KEGOC, Kcell has extended its rally to four consecutive sessions, although this does not yet change its sideways trend. At today’s market open, nearly all stocks are trading higher, with the exception of Halyk Bank. The strongest gains are seen in KazTransOil, which is recovering losses from December 25–26. On the LSE, the rise in Kazatomprom quotations looks particularly interesting. Yes, the GDRs were volatile again during yesterday’s session and fell to $53.1, but overall price action signals the potential start of a recovery and growth wave following the mid-December decline. Air Astana GDRs attempted to rise to nearly $7.1 yesterday but failed to hold those levels.
Currency. The US dollar continued to decline yesterday, closing below 502.6 tenge. During the session, USDKZT tested the 500 tenge level but was later bought back. The market is once again questioning whether this psychological level can hold buyers of the tenge.