Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.8%, once again renewing historical highs. Quotes gained actively in the first half of the session and then traded with minimal volatility. Almost all sectors were in the green on the index map, while only a few large companies such as Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, Netflix, and Boeing saw declines. Against this backdrop, the industrial Dow Jones outpaced the S&P 500 in daily growth, adding 1.4%. Published inflation data came out moderate, easing investor concerns about a potential combination of high inflation and a weak labor market. The core consumer price index rose 0.3% m/m, matching expectations, while the overall index added 0.4%. Equally important were labor market data: initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000 for the week ending September 6, marking the highest level since October 2021. With such data, inflation takes a back seat, and the Fed is likely to focus more on the weakening labor market, further strengthening expectations of rate cuts. In Europe, indices also rose, with the Stoxx 600 performing better than Germany’s DAX. In Asia this morning, Hang Seng gained 1%, CSI 300 lost 0.5%, while Nikkei 225 and Kospi showed positive dynamics. Alibaba in Hong Kong rose 7.3% on optimism about the company’s measures to boost its AI infrastructure budget. In the commodities market, oil fell to $65.7 after the IEA forecasted an even larger surplus next year.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries almost dropped to 4%, down from the 4.6% level recorded on May 21. Against this backdrop, corporate bonds — particularly U.S. investment-grade papers and emerging market debt — are showing strong price growth.
KASE Index. KASE continues to move sideways, but the latest session looked more positive than the previous two, as most stocks showed gains.
Index Stocks. Yesterday, BCC, KEGC, and Kazatomprom shares rose by more than 1%. It is surprising to see traditionally stable KEGOC on this list, most likely due to dividend expectations: the company announced an EGM for October 20, with materials and dividend details to be published on October 10. Kazatomprom continued to rise on the LSE, although growth slowed as quotes approached the round $50 mark. BCC shares added 1.5%, though no significant changes are yet seen in the local technical picture. At today’s open, the market is up 0.4%, with Halyk Bank among the leaders after halting its decline following an unsuccessful resistance test.
Currency. The dollar is breaking above the channel boundaries this morning, potentially signaling a return of USDKZT quotes to the 543–544 tenge range. The ruble reversed intraday in yesterday’s session but is weakening again against the dollar today. On KASE, the last trade for the RUBKZT pair was at 6.35 tenge.