Our comments and expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 fell by 0.64% on Friday and was closed on Monday due to a public holiday. Meanwhile, the calendar flipped to September — traditionally the weakest month for the S&P 500. According to Bank of America, since 1927, the index has declined in September 56% of the time, with an average drop of 1.17%. Bloomberg Intelligence notes that since the 1990s, both September and October are typically marked by heightened volatility, with the Cboe VIX index hovering around 20. One of the seasonal factors contributing to market weakness is the rebalancing of institutional portfolios — particularly those of pension and mutual funds.
Among key economic data, U.S. consumer spending stood out: in July, it posted the strongest growth in four months, reflecting sustained demand despite persistent inflation. Adjusted for inflation, the figure came in at +0.3%. This week, investors will be focused on Friday’s jobs report.
While the U.S. market was on a break, the European Stoxx 600 index gained on Monday, although it remains within a downward trend. Germany’s DAX fell 0.57% on Friday but recovered those losses on Monday. This morning, cautious gains are seen in Japanese and Korean indices, while markets in Hong Kong and China are showing declines. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%.
Commodities ended the last two sessions in the green. Oil hit new highs since August 5 and is trading at $68.5 per barrel. Gold is rising for the fifth consecutive session, reaching new all-time highs on expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Bonds. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds edged up slightly after hitting lows not seen since August 14
KASE Index. The KASE index broke through local resistance levels, reaching new historical highs. The breakout from the consolidation phase following a strong rally was relatively smooth — it took just one small wave of decline followed by a wave of growth. As a result, the local market remains on an upward trajectory and, for the first time in history, reached the 7000-point level — already during today’s opening session.
Index Stocks. The rally in BCC shares continues at full speed: over the past three sessions, prices have climbed by more than 3% daily, and this morning they added nearly 5% at the open. These stocks are currently the largest positive contributors to the index, accounting for nearly 20% of its weight.
On Friday, Kazatomprom tried to compete, with its shares gaining 3.4%. On the KASE, these stocks are performing confidently, renewing historical highs, while on the LSE they have yet to surpass the May 2024 peaks. Notably, uranium prices are also in a strong upward trend: on Friday, prices accelerated by 2.1%, and since July 30, futures have gained 7.6%.
On the Nasdaq, Kaspi ADS are gradually recovering after the decline between August 13 and 20.
Currency. The dollar rose to 539.6 tenge this morning. If we view the USDKZT movement since July 25 as a "bull flag" pattern, the upper boundary of the channel lies near 541 tenge — a breakout above which could signal further dollar appreciation.