Our Comments and Expectations
External background. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% on reduced trading volumes due to a technical glitch at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is reported that trading volume was more than 25% below the 30-day average by the closing time of 1:00 p.m. local time. Despite this, the index moved above the local downward trendline, signaling a market recovery. Over the last five sessions (one full week), the U.S. market gained 4.7% — the strongest weekly performance in five months. In Europe, trading was moderate, with major indices rising by 0.2–0.3%. This morning, S&P 500 futures show the first market decline after a long growth streak, with E-mini futures falling 0.7%. Indices in China and Hong Kong are up 0.6–0.9%. In November, China’s manufacturing activity improved but remains in contraction. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.9% after BoJ Governor Ueda signaled that policymakers may soon raise interest rates, possibly at the December meeting. Oil fell another 1% on Friday, marking the fourth straight month of decline. Today Brent is up to $63.5 after OPEC+ confirmed it will keep its plan to halt production growth in Q1.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose for the first time after five sessions of decline.
KASE Index. KASE rose for four sessions straight, but not as strongly as U.S. indices. On Friday, it posted its first decline after the growth streak, suggesting a pause.
Index components. The most notable move on Friday was Kaspi ADS, rising 4.5%. Quotes closed above the highs seen on October 27–28 and reached the highest level since October 8. This could indicate a breakout from consolidation, though there are counterfactors: ADS did not close at session highs and only slightly exceeded previous peaks. Additionally, weak S&P 500 futures this morning could affect sentiment. More clarity will come at market open, so the breakout is not yet confirmed. On the local market, Halyk Bank is recovering Friday’s 1.5% drop. The largest but moderate decline so far is in KazTransOil. We updated our target price to 1,190 tenge, moderately positive on the latest Q3 results. Quarterly revenue reached a new record amid tariff increases and a recovery in oil transportation volumes. Annual net profit also continued to grow, reaching 128 tenge per share — the highest level since 2021.
FX market. The dollar was quickly bought back on Friday when it attempted to fall below 510 tenge. This morning, the USD adds a modest 0.2% and trades at 513.8 tenge.