Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. Opening in neutral territory, the S&P 500 declined through mid-session and closed near its intraday lows. On the index map, a clear downturn was seen in the tech sector — among semiconductor producers (Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD), software providers (Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir), as well as several mega-cap names (Amazon, Meta, and Tesla). At the same time, nearly all other sectors showed gains. As a result, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.5%, while the industrial Dow Jones closed flat. Noteworthy was Intel’s 7% jump after U.S. approval of a deal to acquire a 10% stake, and SoftBank’s 2% rise following a $2 billion transaction at $23 per share. On the geopolitical front, Trump called on Putin and Zelensky to show flexibility, pushing for a summit in the coming weeks. According to informed sources, U.S. and European officials have begun providing Ukraine with credible security guarantees. Meanwhile, markets await Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. Option traders increased bets on a 50 bps Fed easing in September. S&P reaffirmed the U.S. sovereign rating at AA+, noting that tariff revenues would help offset the fiscal effects of tax cuts and spending increases. In Europe, indices moved higher: Stoxx 600 reached new highs since March, while DAX traded near record peaks. In Asia, markets were mostly lower this morning except for mainland China’s CSI 300. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% at the moment. Oil remains stable at $66.3.
Bonds. Global corporate bonds continue to consolidate. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly lower.
KASE Index. KASE closed unchanged. Gains in Halyk Bank offset declines in other stocks, keeping the market flat. This morning, however, the index opened 0.4% lower.
Index constituents. The KASE index shows a pause after a wave of growth. A limited correction is possible, though in such cases the local market often shifts into a consolidation and sideways trend. Yesterday, Halyk Bank rose 3% locally, but dynamics on the LSE were mixed: at the $27.8 level, investors sold shares, pushing them back down to $26.6, erasing earlier gains. The report can be preliminarily characterized as neutral. Interest income for Q2 2025 amounted to a record KZT 660 billion, up 28% YoY and 4.9% QoQ. At the same time, interest expenses increased 33% YoY and 14% QoQ. A full assessment will be published tomorrow. Today, shares are down 1.2% at the opening.
Currency. The dollar is again trading without major changes at KZT 538.3.