Our comments and expectations
External background. U.S. indices closed near flat on Thursday, recouping most of the morning decline: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day unchanged, while the Dow lost 0.3%. Bonds continued to weigh: the yield on 30-year Treasuries rose to its highest level since 2004, and the 10-year remains near its 2007 highs. Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, signaled the possibility of another rate hike by year-end, and the market is now pricing the probability of such a move in October at nearly 70%. The rebound began after a Reuters report that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased deal: Tehran would open the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington would lift the blockade. Oil rose about 2% on the news, and Brent climbed above $105 amid tough rhetoric from Tehran. Meta gained 4% on plans to monetize its AI agent Muse, while Oracle fell after reports of a force majeure on a data center project. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2% under pressure from high yields and statements by the IRGC that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to its previous regime. The Trump-Xi summit began with conciliatory remarks from the Chinese side, and Bessent announced an extension of the trade truce until January 10. Asian markets are mixed this morning: the Nikkei is up 1.3%, the Hang Seng is down nearly 1.7%, and markets in China and Korea are closed for holidays. U.S. index futures are close to flat.
KASE Index. KASE posted a 0.9% decline on Thursday, which was quite expected after the drop in depository receipts on international markets. The sharpest declines were in Kaspi.kz, Kazatomprom and Air Astana, also pressured by the continued strengthening of the tenge. The KASE Index has fallen to a local trend support area, where buyers may be expected to emerge.
Index stocks. Kaspi.kz shares fell 3.1% yesterday as USDKZT moved down to 442 and the ADS on Nasdaq dropped 2.7% on Wednesday. Yesterday, the ADS fell another 1.1% and rebounded during the session right off the ascending trend line. The premium in the share price remains at 3.3%. Overall, however, Kaspi looks suitable for a local buy at current levels, including with an eye on a rebound of the dollar versus the tenge. Kazatomprom shares fell 1.4%, while the GDR on the LSE declined 0.7%. The premium in the shares has now narrowed to 2.1%. Uranium stocks (ETF URA) also fell noticeably in the U.S. session yesterday—down 2.7%—though they rose 1% in post-market trading. URA is sitting on a trend line, and given Kazatomprom’s previous rebound, there is some probability of a rise in the company’s shares. KazTransOil shares, which previously moved above the round level of 1300 tenge, fell 1.3% on Thursday. We continue to expect further growth in the closing price toward 1370 tenge within the current upward wave. Air Astana shares also declined noticeably, by 1.4%. The GDRs in London remain at the same level, but the shares closed at their lowest levels since July and now trade at a 1.2% discount to the GDRs.
Currency. USDKZT fell by nearly 2 tenge yesterday to 442.1. We continue to expect the pair to decline to 439-440 tenge. Trading volumes were above average.