Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 opened lower on Friday but immediately began to recover and ended the day slightly in the green. On the S&P 500 map, only semiconductor and software producers, as well as oil and gas stocks, showed growth. This week, investors will closely watch Nvidia’s report on Wednesday and the long-awaited macroeconomic data — absent for over a month — to gauge the potential direction of the Fed’s decision at the December meeting. In Europe, markets fell by 0.7–1.1% on Friday after gains earlier in the week. China released economic data on Friday showing GDP growth slowing more than expected due to weakening investment trends and slower industrial production growth. Hong Kong raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, reflecting stronger confidence in economic momentum. Over the weekend, tensions escalated between China and Japan over the Taiwan issue. China issued a warning for its citizens to refrain from traveling to or studying in Japan, citing deteriorating safety conditions. Nomura stated that the loss of tourism revenue could weaken the yen, while Bloomberg Intelligence forecast an increased risk of a boycott of Japanese goods in China. This morning, Japan's Nikkei 225 is slightly down, while Chinese and Hong Kong indices are losing about 1%. On Friday, oil jumped 2.2% after Goldman, following the IEA, issued an optimistic forecast, expecting oil consumption to continue rising until 2040. This morning, oil prices are rolling back by 0.8% following news that crude transshipment in Novorossiysk has resumed after drone attacks. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.4%.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasuries continued to rise on Friday. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE index absorbed the negative sentiment from global markets on Friday. Quotes fell 0.7% and are now testing a support level near the lows of the last two months. The next few sessions will likely involve bulls defending this level.
Index Stocks. The main drag on the index again came from stocks linked to external markets — Kaspi and Kazatomprom. Kazatomprom’s GDRs on the LSE remain volatile, with quotes quickly swinging from the lower to the upper boundaries of a wide sideways channel. On Friday, the stock fell 5.7%, not even reaching support. Kaspi fell 1.2% on Nasdaq, which did not change its technical setup.
We previously noted that Halyk Bank’s report appeared positive at first glance, but for two sessions in a row the market has shown no reaction. Today’s opening remains moderately negative: KMG is up 0.5% on rising oil futures, while Kazatomprom is down 2.3%.
Currency. The tax period has begun in Kazakhstan, and we are now betting on a rise in the dollar after November 20 (possibly earlier).