Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% yesterday and is once again testing support at the 50-day moving average. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries yesterday exceeded the 5% mark for the first time since 2023 amid a rise in oil to $106.5 per barrel, which put pressure on the market. Nevertheless, by the end of the session the yield returned to 4.96%. The probability of a Fed rate hike at tomorrow’s meeting rose to about 90%. At the same time, Trump again stated the need to cut Fed rates. Among sectors, semiconductor manufacturers posted the largest decline after the heads of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX said development of the most advanced AI models needs to be slowed due to rising risks. Trump reacted negatively to this, as he seeks to maintain US leadership in the industry versus China. Meanwhile, a meeting between Iran and a number of Persian Gulf countries on creating a temporary shipping corridor was postponed, and Saudi Arabia’s “East–West” pipeline remained closed after attacks by Iraqi militants last week. This morning in Asia, sentiment is moderately negative. Oil is trading at $107.3 per barrel for Brent. According to Bernstein forecasts, Brent could rise to $120–150 per barrel, as supply volumes from the Middle East remain below pre-war levels. Meanwhile, S&P 500 index futures are showing positive momentum — quotes are up 0.7%.
KASE Index. KASE rose 0.6% yesterday. As we mentioned earlier, prices are now near medium-term support levels, which is helping the market recover after Friday’s decline. In addition, the index tested the 50-day moving average yesterday, from which it managed to bounce higher. By the way, a similar trend can be seen in individual stocks in the market.
Index stocks. The biggest gain yesterday was in Kaspi shares, which illogically fell on Friday, as a result of which they became cheaper than peers on Nasdaq. Yesterday, the ADS added another 0.6%, and the shares on both exchanges matched in price. For the second session, quotes are rising from the 50-day moving average; however, yesterday’s gain was weaker than the previous one, which may indicate a price stabilization scenario instead of a strong rebound. Kazatomprom fell 1.4% yesterday, with the decline contained by the 200-day moving average. Yesterday, the IAEA and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency warned that uranium mining companies need to start implementing new projects now to avoid a supply deficit in the mid-2030s. This message may bring the long-term growth trigger for KZAP shares closer into a shorter time horizon. In second place by gains were KZTO shares, which reached the highs of June 2 — the date immediately before the dividend cut-off. We have updated our target price for Solidcore shares, raising it to $15 after the first-half report, which we assessed as moderately positive. The current upside potential is 20%.
Currency. USDKZT is trading today at 448.8 tenge. In the updated scenario, we set a local target at 439 tenge, believing that under the current positive conditions for the national currency — high demand for tenge and high interest rates — the dollar will not be able to hold the 445 tenge level over the course of a month.