Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 1.1%, fully recovering from the October 16 decline and the earlier, larger drop on October 10. Positive factors included strong Q3 earnings reports and hopes for easing tensions between the U.S. and China. Of the 85% of S&P 500 companies that have already reported, the majority have exceeded forecasts. This week, key events include Friday’s inflation report and Tesla’s earnings. Economists expect core CPI (excluding food and energy) to rise by 0.3% for the third consecutive month and 3.1% year-on-year. European indices also showed revival: Stoxx 600 and DAX increased by 1% and 1.8%, respectively. In Asia, markets closed positively yesterday: this morning, the Hang Seng is up another 1.3%, mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 1.6%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 shows a modest +0.1%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%. Oil trades at $61.1 per barrel, and gold has again approached its record highs.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries remains in a downtrend amid expectations of rate cuts. Emerging market bonds are showing a strong rebound.
KASE Index. The KASE index opened yesterday with a 0.9% decline and closed down by 1%. Despite global market optimism, KASE was pressured mainly by the fall in Kazatomprom shares.
Stocks. Kazatomprom fell by 5.3% on the local market and 1% on the LSE. The currency difference between exchanges is minor — local tenge shares are 2.3% more expensive than GDRs. Uranium ETFs stabilized yesterday: URNM dropped 0.6%, while URA rose 0.2%. Uranium prices have fallen 7.7% since the start of the month, reaching their lowest level since September 18. Other Kazakh stocks showed moderately negative dynamics, with price deviations below 1%. Since the external background this morning is positive (except for oil prices) and uranium stocks have stopped falling, we expect a neutral session on KASE. At the opening, the index was nearly unchanged, with KMG and Kaspi shares rising. Notably, Kaspi gained 2.1% yesterday, which could be an important technical signal — a bullish divergence has formed on the daily chart. Given this technical setup, the stock may still see a short-term dip before rebounding upward. By then, the company’s earnings release may also be approaching. The idea is interesting for those looking to buy Kaspi.kz shares at a lower price or spot a potential quick-growth opportunity.
Currency. USDKZT trades with little change at 538.15 tenge, staying slightly above the trend line. The U.S. dollar has also stopped strengthening against the ruble.