Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Over two trading sessions, the S&P 500 rose by 2%, confidently reaching new highs amid a new wave of AI-driven technology rallies and optimism around trade relations. The index rose 0.8% on Friday and 1.2% on Monday. Qualcomm shares surged after announcing plans to start delivering its new AI chip — AI200 — next year. On Monday, the market rose even before the session opened, supported by positive sentiment on US-China negotiations. Reports indicate that trade negotiators reached several diplomatic agreements, which Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will present at this week’s summit. Trump told reporters, “I’m really in a good mood” regarding the China deal. However, market participants noted that fundamental disagreements on national security issues and Trump’s stated mission to restore the trade balance remain unchanged. Economic news was also positive — Friday’s inflation report showed core CPI up 0.2% month-on-month, below the forecast of 0.3%, strengthening expectations for rate cuts. Financial reports also show that the trade war has not significantly affected company earnings. On Wednesday and Thursday, attention will focus on Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Apple reports, which account for about a quarter of S&P 500 capitalization. This morning, Asian markets show moderate sentiment: major indices are down 0.3–0.8%. Oil is down 1.5% in the morning, trading at $64.7. S&P 500 futures are currently neutral.
Bonds. Yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds fell, while corporate bonds showed solid gains, particularly in emerging markets.
KASE Index. KASE closed neutral on Friday, although daily candles show quotes rising above 7000 points. If today’s session is successful, Kaspi shares may show significant growth, but without support from other stocks, a retest of the 7000-point round level will be difficult.
Index Stocks. Analysis of individual index companies shows that the shadow on the KASE chart was left by Kazatomprom shares, which tried to rise to 29,500 KZT but could not hold that level. On the LSE, GDRs fluctuated amid a slow uranium price recovery. On Nasdaq, Kaspi shares gained 3.1% over two sessions, which may reflect the potential rebound we previously mentioned. At market open today, Kaspi shares are rising sharply, fluctuating between 2.9% and 4.4%. Other stocks are in modest decline, showing no clear reaction to the positive performance of global indices. Air Astana remains above previously broken resistance levels, although the growth pace is clearly slowing.
Currency. At today’s market open, the tenge strengthened to levels seen on October 16. Western investment banks have started issuing forecasts for further national currency appreciation next year amid government efforts to combat inflation.