Our Comments and Expectations
External environment. The S&P 500 fell by 2.1%, catching off guard investors who, according to a BofA survey, had reached their highest level of optimism since 2021. Political factors remain the main source of pressure: Trump intensified criticism of European leaders, threatening “crushing” tariffs on French wines after Macron criticized the U.S. president’s “Peace Council” initiative. Against this backdrop, Bessent called for calm regarding Greenland and criticized the idea of Europeans divesting from U.S. assets. In the bond market, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries jumped following news that Denmark’s AkademikerPension pension fund plans to exit U.S. Treasuries by the end of the month. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court once again refrained from issuing a ruling on Trump’s tariffs, potentially delaying the matter for another month. Bessent also stated that Trump may announce his nominee for the position of Fed Chair as early as next week. European indices declined by 0.6–1%. In Japan, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama urged market participants to remain calm after a tense bond sell-off, during which yields on 40-year government bonds rose above 4% for the first time in 30 years. Gold rose by 3.5% during yesterday’s session and is up another 2.1% this morning.
KASE Index. The KASE Index gained 0.9%, marking its fourth consecutive session of growth. Quotes updated their highs, while trading volumes once again exceeded KZT 1 billion per session.
Index stocks. Kazatomprom shares rose by 6.1%, offsetting the currency gap with the LSE and adding an additional 1.4%. As a result, the shares on KASE are trading at a 0.9% premium to the GDRs, which remains a relatively small divergence given that the shares are almost always priced higher. The most notable events of the session occurred on the LSE, where GDRs closed with a modest gain of 0.4%. Kazatomprom GDRs experienced an extremely volatile session, falling to $72.5 and rising to $77.4 within a single day, forming long shadows on the daily candlestick. Uranium funds Global X Uranium and Sprott Uranium Miners also reversed during the session. Such dynamics can be viewed as a potential early signal of a correction, and we believe investors should be prepared for a possible local pullback, paying attention to the RSI entering overbought territory and the formation of a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart. The GDRs of Halyk Bank also showed interesting dynamics, jumping by 1.1% and seemingly breaking out of a local consolidation that lasted three sessions. On KASE, KazMunayGas ranked second by growth, also breaking upward from a sideways trend and approaching its historical highs, which act as resistance around KZT 22,500. The largest decline was seen in Kaspi, whose ADS fell by 2.6% amid overall weakness in the U.S. market. A notable point was the active buying interest when prices dipped below $77 per receipt.
Currency. The USDKZT pair closed yesterday above its session lows at KZT 507.7. Today, the dollar is trading around KZT 507.5.