Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 closed with a slight gain yesterday. U.S. jobless claims totaled 191,000 last week, coming in below expectations, despite layoffs in the previous month being the highest for November in three years. At the same time, bets on a 25 basis-point easing in monetary policy at next week’s meeting remained unchanged.
Bloomberg Economics expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 100 basis points, while the artificial intelligence boom could soften the impact of tariffs in 2026. Among corporate news, Mark Zuckerberg’s plan to cut Metaverse-related spending by as much as 30% next year was notable, after which the company’s stock rose by 3.4%.
In Europe, continental indices rose by 0.5–0.8%. It was reported that Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators will meet in Florida after Vladimir Putin indicated that a peace agreement is still a long way off.
In Asia this morning, markets are moving in mixed directions: Japan’s Nikkei 225 is declining, while Korea’s Kospi is rising. Chinese and Hong Kong indices are in moderate positive territory. S&P 500 futures are up 0.23%. Oil rose yesterday and is trading today at $63.2 per barrel. According to WoodMac, global oil demand will peak at 108 million barrels per day in 2032, following a gradual slowdown in growth in the coming years.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields ticked slightly higher after the jobless claims data.
KASE Index. The KASE closed neutral again yesterday. Most stocks were in mildly negative territory, but a 2.8% rise in Kazatomprom helped stabilize the index. In the currency market, the dollar held the 500 tenge level and strengthened.
Index stocks. Kazatomprom on the LSE managed to обновить highs. The triangle pattern broke upward, with prices first breaking the local descending trendline and then the horizontal resistance at historical highs around $58.5. According to Fibonacci levels, the next resistance is at $62.4, which can be considered a near-term target.
Overall, it was a strong day for uranium companies, with sector ETFs URA and URNM rising by 4–5.5%. The UK-listed fund Yellow Cake stated that the imbalance between supply and demand in the uranium market will intensify, leading to further price increases. The company also acknowledged potential short-term volatility, but stated that fundamental factors point to further upside in uranium prices due to expanding utility purchases and the growing role of nuclear power worldwide.
GDRs of Air Astana also rose on the LSE, reaching their highest levels since September 2024. On the KASE, KazTransOil continues its slow but steady rise. The sharpest decline was seen in Kaspi, which has started to consolidate again on Nasdaq.
Currency. As we expected yesterday, dollar buyers managed to defend the 500 tenge level. The daily USDKZT candle showed signs of intense battle between buyers and sellers — the dollar was actively bought near 498.3 tenge. This morning, the pair is trading around 505.7 tenge per dollar. The Russian ruble strengthened against the dollar to around 76.