Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 bounced back after four consecutive sessions of decline. The trigger for the rise was inflation data: core consumer inflation in the U.S. in November fell to its lowest level since early 2021, missing consensus forecasts. Investors had some doubts about the data quality, but overall the report was received positively. Ostan Goolsby noted that “much deserves attention,” and options traders increased bets on at least two Fed rate cuts in 2026. The market was also supported by optimistic forecasts from Micron. However, looking at the index map, the growth was mainly concentrated in technology companies and megacaps, while the daily candle shows that the closing increase was almost half of the intraday highs. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 1% and closed at historical highs. Sources familiar with the situation report that ECB representatives expect the central bank’s monetary easing cycle to likely end based on current growth and inflation forecasts. In Asia, indices are rising in the morning following the S&P 500. The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades. In the commodities market, gold reached new highs. Brent oil is trading again below $60 per barrel. Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2026 gold could rise to $4,900, while oil may fall to $56.
KASE Index. KASE fell for the third consecutive session yesterday, equal to the previous three sessions of growth. Nevertheless, the market remained slightly above the starting level of the previous local rally and above the local trend line. Yesterday, we forecast a slowdown in the market decline, which, judging by the signals, may begin in the current session as external conditions improve.
Index Stocks. Once again, Kazatomprom led the decline yesterday, losing another 5.4%. Most likely, the quotes were adjusting for the currency difference accumulated in the local market. On the LSE, GDRs rose 3.9% for the first time after five continuous sessions of decline, supported by positive sentiment in the U.S. market overall and the tech sector in particular. Before today’s session, GDRs were already 1.5% higher than local market shares, which facilitates growth on KASE. In our previous review, we noted that uranium is currently showing growth, moving contrary to Kazatomprom shares. If there is no sharp pullback, KAP quotes should show local growth, which in turn will improve the KASE index position and confirm our forecast for the completion of the local market correction. Additionally, the decline in Air Astana is likely nearing its end; we remain cautious but do not expect a sharp reversal similar to that of the Народный банк after its SPO.
Currency. The tenge began weakening against the dollar after signals of a slowdown in quote growth. USDKZT is trading around 517.7 tenge this morning. Reminder: the next resistance level is at 521 tenge.