Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The central figure of yesterday’s U.S. session was Nvidia. Since the company reported after the market closed, all the positive effects of its financial results are reflected today in the S&P 500 futures, which are up 1.3% in early trading. The company’s revenue forecast beat expectations, calming markets that had been concerned about the future of AI. “Demand for the Blackwell processor is off the charts,” said CEO Jensen Huang. A moderately negative point for the market was the release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes, where most officials considered it appropriate to keep rates unchanged until the end of 2025. This morning in Asia, Japanese and Korean indices are showing strong growth, while Chinese markets remain neutral. European index futures are rising by 0.7–0.8%.
KASE Index. The KASE index fell by a modest 0.2% yesterday, a slower decline compared to previous sessions. The market’s downward movement eased, and the daily candle showed long shadows as buyers and sellers fought, with signs of buying from the 6,754-point level. Trading volumes were the highest in the past two weeks. However, despite moderate local trading, our GDRs remained volatile.
Index stocks. The main underperformer of the session was Halyk Bank. Its shares fell by 2.6% on the local market and by 4.9% on the LSE. The obvious trigger was the announcement of the SPO and the start of the book-building process. It remains unclear what exactly caused such a steep decline on the London exchange, since the placement price will only be announced on November 21. The situation shows signs of the same haste seen in the company’s previous secondary offerings. As we noted earlier, this decline is not a fundamental deterioration, as it does not affect the company’s financial performance. Historically, prices have recovered in similar situations when the company had growth potential. Still, this placement does not bring benefits — the company’s stake is being diluted. The leader of growth was Kazatomprom, which rose by 1.6% locally and by 5.2% on the LSE following news that the U.S. government plans to purchase 10 large nuclear reactors. It is clear that today on KASE the price will attempt to reflect yesterday’s surge, but we believe the growth will not be limited to this session. The wave-like movement suggests prices may rise up to 9% from yesterday’s close. On the LSE, GDRs still have 7.7% upside to their previous highs. Air Astana also looks attractive, as the stock continues to test the resistance level at 873 tenge. If it breaks this level, the mid-term uptrend may continue. Among market news, the Minister of National Economy Zhumagarin announced plans to bring Kazakhtelecom and Qazaq Green Power PLC to IPO/SPO.
Currency. This morning the dollar began to fall below 518 tenge on the forex market. We expect the positive effects of the tax period on the tenge to start diminishing from today’s session.