Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, continuing its slow recovery after the August 1 decline. On the index map, large companies such as Broadcom, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, and Walmart stood out. U.S. healthcare sector stocks were in negative territory. It was reported that Apple committed to spend an additional $100 billion on U.S. production to avoid the imposition of punitive tariffs on iPhones. McDonald’s posted results better than expected, while Disney disappointed Wall Street with a low annual profit forecast. Goldman trader Paolo Schiavone stated that betting against rising stocks “seems almost irrational.” Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to its continued purchases of Russian oil, effectively doubling the rate to 50%. He also announced that the U.S. would impose “a tariff of around 100%” on chips and semiconductors, but later clarified that companies manufacturing goods in the U.S. could receive exemptions from these tariffs, which somewhat eased the situation. Next week, he plans to meet with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, three Fed officials expressed concerns over the U.S. labor market, signaling the possibility of a rate cut in September. In Europe, indices had a near-neutral session. This morning, Asian indices showed moderate gains in the range of 0.4–0.6%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.23%. Yesterday’s attempt at an oil price rebound failed, and “black gold” declined for the fifth consecutive session. Today, futures are making another attempt at growth, trading at $67.3 per barrel.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries posted a slight increase. Corporate bonds were neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose for the second session in a row. The current market pattern — where three moderately negative sessions are followed by two growth sessions — directly indicates a continuing local sideways trend.
Index Stocks. The biggest gain yesterday came from Kazatomprom shares. Notably, GDRs on the LSE closed at $44.4, marking the highest level since May 28, 2024, and breaking through resistance levels of the previously formed sideways trend. For stronger confirmation of this breakout, prices need to rise by about another 1%. The quarterly and half-year report is expected on August 22 along with a conference call. Air Astana shares also rose both on the local market and the LSE — the company published its second-quarter and first-half results yesterday, with a detailed breakdown to follow later. This morning, with the market opening, the index is up 0.3%, showing a slowdown in the rebound. Kazatomprom (+1.3%) remains the growth leader.
Currency. Today the U.S. dollar is regaining part of the positions lost between July 31 and August 5. The USDKZT rate is currently trading at 539.4 tenge. Technically, we can see the formation of a dollar uptrend channel since mid-June, and today there is a rebound from the lower boundary of this channel.