Our Comments and Expectations
External background. Between December 31 and January 2, the S&P 500 index declined by 0.5%. The daily candle formed long shadows within the range of 6,858–6,894 points. Bank of America strategists forecast the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 points this year, while Barclays Plc analysts warn that equity markets may become volatile. Deutsche Bank noted that in 2026, markets will be shaped not only by AI but also by several key themes, including changes in U.S. trade policy. Fed Chair Anna Paulson stated that a moderate rate cut could be appropriate toward the end of 2026. Over the weekend, a major event was the change of power in Venezuela following a large-scale U.S. military operation. Marco Rubio said the U.S. would use an oil “quarantine” to pressure Venezuela’s new leadership, represented by acting President Delcy Rodríguez. Oil prices showed no clear directional move: trading on Friday and during the current Asian session was volatile but resulted in no significant net price changes. OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production unchanged until March despite global market turmoil. Delegates said the Venezuela issue was not discussed during the brief meeting. According to Goldman Sachs, Venezuela’s long-term potential to increase oil output could put downward pressure on prices.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.19%.
KASE Index. The final trading session of 2025 brought no significant changes to the market. The daily candle reflected a wide intraday price range amid low trading volumes. At its peak, the index approached 7,090 points.
Index stocks. The sharpest decline was seen in BCC shares, which failed to extend their upward wave and began reversing as early as mid-session on December 26. On Wednesday, the correction deepened, with prices falling to local support levels.
The strongest gain was recorded by Air Astana shares, which closed 2025 on a solid note. However, the 1.8% increase did not alter the broader picture, as prices remained in sideways consolidation following the December 22–25 move.
On the LSE, GDRs of Halyk Bank saw a notable decline after failing to hold above the strong resistance level of $30 per receipt. Kaspi also moved lower from its consolidation range, though without a clear breakout.
Kazatomprom gained 2.2%, forming a daily candle with deep shadows. This rise appears modest compared to other uranium companies. For example, URA and URNM funds surged by 7.8–10.1% in a single session on Friday. The likely trigger was positive sales guidance from Energy Fuels, whose shares jumped 14.7%. We expect a more pronounced reaction from Kazatomprom to the sector’s strength during the current session.
Currency. In the morning, the U.S. dollar strengthened to 510.8 tenge in the USDKZT pair. Either the quotes are forming the previously expected triangle pattern, which is a neutral signal, or a W-shaped double-bottom formation is emerging, signaling further dollar strength.