Our Comments and Expectations
External background. On Friday, the S&P 500 slipped by a marginal 0.1% as investors sold U.S. Treasury bonds. The move followed a statement by Donald Trump suggesting that the potential departure of Kevin Hassett from his role as Director of the National Economic Council would deprive the administration of one of its most influential economic experts. Notably, Hassett had been considered a leading candidate to replace Powell, and the statement raised market concerns that Trump’s attitude toward a candidate supporting accommodative monetary policy may be cooling. U.S. markets are closed today. In Europe, indices ended Friday’s session flat, while futures are down 1.0–1.1% this morning. On Saturday, Trump announced that starting February 1, the U.S. would impose a 10% tariff on goods from European countries that do not agree with his intention to take control of Greenland. He added that tariffs would rise to 25% in June and remain in place until “an agreement on the complete and absolute purchase of Greenland is reached.” Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe these threats increase the likelihood that European governments may reduce investments in U.S. assets, potentially supporting the euro. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is declining this morning, while Korea’s Kospi is rising. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s GDP grew by 5% in 2025, meeting forecasts. S&P 500 futures are currently down 0.9%.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose by 0.3% on Friday. Prices continue to move within a local consolidation range. Judging by today’s market opening, the market is not yet in a hurry to break out of the sideways trend.
Index stocks. Most stocks within the index continue to trade moderately. While the majority of shares rose on Friday, a notable gain was seen only in Kazatomprom. Today, the stock is likely to receive support from its GDRs, which climbed 4.5%, renewed record highs, and broke through resistance levels. The sector’s rally was triggered by early signs of an energy crisis in the U.S.: Trump urged PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid operator, to conduct an “emergency” auction to build new power plants due to the risk of capacity shortages and aging plants during periods of high demand from AI data centers. In addition, analytical reports on uranium shortages amid the expansion of nuclear energy continue to emerge. Uranium production is reported to be at historically low levels, especially in the U.S., while long-dated uranium futures are trading around $100. Bank of America stated that uranium prices could rise by 50% in 2026, reaching $130 per pound by Q4 2026, and named Cameco as the best stock in the sector. At today’s opening, KazTransOil shares continue to rise on elevated volumes, while Halyk Bank remains in a slow correction phase. On the AIX exchange, a strong rally in Solidcore shares continues.
Currency. The dollar’s attempt to rise on Friday was unsuccessful. The tenge strengthened, bringing the USDKZT rate back to 510.6. Today, the tenge continues to strengthen, reaching 508.9 per dollar. Overall, the currency pair remains in sideways consolidation.