Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.9%, continuing to recover after the July 16–17 decline. On the index heatmap, technology companies and semiconductor manufacturers were again among the top gainers, although далеко not all мегacap companies posted gains yesterday. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.3%, while the sector semiconductor index jumped 5.45%. Positive news was Super Micro Computer’s statement that its outlook implies growth in the order book, while Nvidia said its latest developments have begun shipping to customers. UBS’s trading desk believes one reason the semiconductor sector may be finding a bottom is that most speculative positions have already been closed. Today marks the start of a fairly important phase for the market — the release of earnings reports from major technology companies. Tesla and Google report today, and next week — Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. So far, the new earnings season has shown good results: according to Bloomberg, more than 90% of S&P 500 companies that have already reported have beaten profit forecasts. Notably, the rise in U.S. stocks was not restrained by rising oil prices, which began accelerating after breaking through two important moving averages. This morning Brent is already trading at $93.1 per barrel, the highest since July 11, amid fading hopes for U.S.–Iran peace talks following Trump’s remarks. This morning, moderately negative sentiment prevails across Asian markets: the Hang Seng index is showing the largest decline — 1% — after reaching its 200-day moving average. Gold is showing decent growth, hinting at the formation of a new upward wave. S&P 500 futures are down 0.35%.
KASE Index. KASE closed down 0.5% yesterday after two rising sessions. The backdrop for the local market was moderately positive, but it provided almost no support to local stocks. Nevertheless, today it may play in the market’s favor.
Index stocks. Stocks on foreign exchanges mostly rose yesterday. Halyk Bank GDRs gained 2.2% and, overall, continued the rebound that began on July 17 after the announcement of the second semiannual dividend payment (BoD recommendations and the EGM date). In addition, Kazatomprom rose amid higher quotes for uranium-sector companies. At today’s LSE open, quotes reached $69, attempting to break above the 200-day moving average. Uranium ETFs URA and URNM jumped 4% yesterday, although they have not yet shown a trend reversal. Air Astana GDRs pulled back amid rising oil prices.
Currency. There are still no significant changes on the USDKZT chart. This morning the dollar is trading around 469 tenge. Meanwhile, the ruble’s decline against the dollar has stalled and shifted into a local pause.