Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose by 0.8% yesterday amid declining oil prices and reached new all-time highs. There were reports of around one hundred vessels accumulating off the coast of Dubai. However, more positive signals followed: the U.S. softened its rhetoric regarding the likelihood of renewed active warfare and stated that the four-week ceasefire remains in force. Later, Donald Trump indicated progress in negotiations with Iran toward a final agreement. In March, job openings remained broadly unchanged, while hiring activity increased. New home sales rose by 7.4% month-over-month, reaching an annualized rate of 682,000 units. In Europe, Germany’s DAX showed strong performance, gaining 1.7%. Asian markets are mostly positive today: China’s CSI 300 is up 1.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is rising by 1%, and South Korea’s Kospi has surged by 6.5%. A private survey indicated an unexpected improvement in China’s services sector activity in April, suggesting that companies are adapting to price shocks caused by the military conflict. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% today.
KASE Index. The KASE index gained 0.3% yesterday amid a continued gradual decline in trading volumes. However, today at the open the index is down 0.4%, offsetting the previous session’s gains. The main pressure comes from GDRs and ADS, which closed lower yesterday.
Index stocks. Yesterday, Kazatomprom shares showed the strongest performance both on the local market and on the LSE. Overall, GDRs remain in a solid technical position, maintaining a local uptrend since March 23. Prices are trading above the upper boundary of a long-standing sideways channel. However, there are still insufficient signals for further growth: the $92 level represents resistance formed by previous highs and may be difficult to break, especially given yesterday’s decline in uranium companies. Unless there is significant progress in U.S.-Iran relations—which could act as a strong market-wide catalyst—we expect a local triangle pattern to form over the next 1–1.5 weeks, followed by a potential upward breakout. As for the decline in HSBK and KSPI foreign-listed shares, we do not see any material deterioration; in both cases, the charts resemble a “flag” pattern. Air Astana also released its report yesterday, which was moderately negative based on preliminary estimates.
Currency. We believe that the USDKZT level of 466.2 is unlikely to be broken in the near term, given the absence of FX purchases by the Unified Pension Fund this month. From a macroeconomic perspective, the situation remains positive: inflation is declining while the base rate remains high. There is a scenario in which USDKZT could decline back to the 455–460 range over the next one and a half weeks.