Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed flat on Friday, although the session could hardly be called calm: during the day, prices rose to 7,460 points and then returned to their opening levels. The semiconductor industry index fell 4.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.6%. Oil declined 3.9% and again fell below $100 per barrel of Brent. Reports emerged that Pakistan is considering resuming negotiations following China’s initiative. The New York Times reported that Trump met with his top advisers to decide whether to step up attacks. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, about 85% of S&P 500 companies that have already reported results beat profit forecasts—the highest share in the past five years. Intel’s revenue guidance significantly exceeded expectations, indicating that the AI data-center boom is supporting demand for its chips. Over the weekend, it became known that the U.S. imposed tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners following an investigation that found about 60 countries failed to curb forced labor, which the U.S. says harmed American workers. In economic news, U.S. business activity in July grew at the fastest pace in eight months as strong domestic demand for services offset a slowdown in manufacturing. Business activity also improved markedly in Europe, while one-year inflation expectations in June fell to 3%. Germany’s DAX jumped 1.4%. This morning, sentiment in Asia is moderately positive: major regional indices are up 0.5–1.1%. Oil plunged nearly 11% to $86 per barrel after the U.S. paused a nearly two-week string of strikes on Iran. S&P 500 futures are trading flat.
KASE Index. KASE closed flat on Friday: most stocks showed no pronounced dynamics or significant price moves. The exception was Air Astana, whose shares rose 1.9% and continued their upward wave.
Index stocks. AIRA shares on the local market jumped 1.9% and reached their highest level since mid-April. Quotes are now recovering positions lost due to expensive oil. Today’s collapse in oil prices to $86 per barrel may reinforce this recovery. On the LSE, by the way, the GDRs rose 2.1%. The biggest decline among our names was shown by Kazatomprom GDRs. After the securities broke support levels around $67 per GDR, they found new support at $64.4, from which they are bouncing 2.9% in today’s LSE session. Kaspi rose 0.9% on Friday and took a pause after two consecutive sessions of notable declines.
Currency. The dollar tried to rise to 478.5 tenge on Friday but closed around 474 tenge. Today in the Forex market, USDKZT quotes are declining to 473 tenge.