Our comments and expectations
External background. Yesterday the S&P 500 declined by 0.3%. The drop followed Iran’s statement that it was unwilling to send diplomats to Pakistan for the second round of peace negotiations. However, reports suggest that Iran has not made a final decision and is still considering the U.S. proposal. Donald Trump stated that Vice President J. D. Vance had been sent to Pakistan. Oil prices rose by 5.6% yesterday, with Brent reaching $95.5 per barrel. Nevertheless, the overall market picture remains relatively calm, suggesting that markets are prepared for fluctuations in sentiment from Iran and the United States on the path toward a peace agreement, despite Trump’s statement that he does not intend to extend the two-week ceasefire. Futures on the S&P 500 are up by 0.12%, while DAX and Stoxx Europe 600 are gaining around 0.2%. In Asia, Nikkei 225 and Kospi are rising by 1.3–2.3%. Oil is trading at around $94.9 per barrel.
KASE Index. Yesterday’s trading session on the KASE Index was volatile and memorable. Six out of ten stocks in the index closed with price deviations exceeding 1%, and three of them moved by more than 2%. The daily candlestick formed deep shadows: within a single session prices dropped to 7,723 points (-2%) and rose to 7,991 points (+1.4%). Trading volumes reached annual highs of KZT 10.5 billion. Although half of the volume came from KazMunayGas, high activity and volatility were also observed in several other stocks, clearly indicating an eventful trading day on April 20.
Index stocks. The spotlight yesterday was on Kaspi.kz shares, which surged by 6.3% on the local market and by 8.1% on Nasdaq. The trigger was Kaspi’s announcement that Chinese giant Tencent (together with Kaspi’s management) purchased six million ADS from Baring Fintech Venture Funds.