Solidcore Resources has published its financial results for 2025. The report is assessed as moderately positive: record-high gold prices drove revenue and EBITDA growth, despite a decline in production and sales volumes due to disruptions in toll processing of the Kyzyl concentrate in the first half of the year. The second half of the year saw a sharp recovery: revenue for the half-year period increased 3.6-fold, and free cash flow rebounded strongly from –$220 million to +$568 million. For the full year, revenue grew by 13%, adjusted EBITDA by 37% (with a margin of 65%), and net profit by 24%. No dividends are proposed for 2025 — the company prioritises investments in the Yertis Hydrometallurgical Plant project and other development projects. In our valuation model, we have raised the forecast gold prices and updated cost assumptions in line with the company’s guidance. The updated target price for one Solidcore share is $9.6, implying a 26% upside potential from the current market price. Recommendation: Buy.
Core Valuation Factors. The main positive factor is the current level of gold prices: the average sale price amounted to $3,658 per ounce in 2025 (+52% YoY), and in the Q1 2026, the average LBMA closing price exceeded $4,876 per ounce. If current prices are maintained, the financial results for 2026 will clearly be significantly stronger than those for 2025. Another positive factor is the expected production growth in 2026 to 540 thousand ounces of gold equivalent (+37% YoY), driven by the processing of accumulated concentrate inventories. The main risk is a large-scale investment cycle. According to the company’s forecast, capital expenditures will double to $510 million, of which $315 million is allocated to the construction of the Yertis Hydrometallurgical Plant project. The company is negotiating to secure credit lines of $600–700 million to f inance the project. The decision to forego dividends signals that the cash position will be directed towards funding growth. Another significant risk is the introduction of a progressive mineral extraction tax (MET) rate starting in 2026, with a maximum rate of 11% for gold prices above $3,800 per ounce (previously 7.5%), which will notably increase the tax burden. Reliance on third-party processing of the Kyzyl concentrate remains a systemic operational risk until the Yertis Hydrometallurgical Plant facility is commissioned.
Revenue: A Record-Breaking Second Half of the Year Offset the First Half’s Decline. In the second half of the year, revenue amounted to $1,175 million, compared to $325 million in the H1 (+262% p/p), with the second half being 88 % higher than the same period in 2024 ($625 million). The average gold sale price reached $3,815 per ounce in the H2, compared to $3,161 per ounce in the H1 (+21% p/p) and $2,553 per ounce in the H2 2024 (+49% YoY). Sales amounted to 308 thousand ounces of gold equivalent in the H2, compared to 104 thousand in the H1 (+196% p/p). Kyzyl drove the main growth: sales recovered to 216 thousand ounces, compared to 24 thousand in the H1, when disruptions in toll processing had nearly completely halted sales. Varvarinskoye showed stable dynamics: 91 thousand ounces in the H2, compared to 80 thousand in the H1. Production in the second half amounted to 271 thousand ounces (+121% p/p, +14% YoY), of which: 186 thousand ounces at Kyzyl (+295 % p/p) and 85 thousand ounces at Varvarinskoye (+12 % p/p). For the full year: Revenue grew by 13% YoY to $1,500 million, annual production amounted to 395 thousand ounces (−19% YoY), and while at the enterprise level, metal output remained stable at 508 thousand ounces (−1% YoY). Ore reserves decreased by 2% YoY to 11.9 million ounces, while mineral resources grew by 10% to 3.8 million ounces.
Margins and Cash Flow: The Second Half of the Year Drove the Full-Year Performance. In the second half of the year, adjusted EBITDA amounted to $820 million, with a margin of 70%, compared to $152 million and 47% in the H1. For comparison, in the H2 2024, EBITDA was $366 million with a margin of 59% — representing more than a twofold YoY growth. Net profit for the H2 was $577 million, compared to $85 million in the H1 (+579% p/p) and $295 million in the H2 2024 (+96% YoY). Monetary unit cost decreased to $1,027 per ounce in the H2 (−30% p/p and +4.3% YoY). All-in sustaining costs (AISC) reached $1,307 per ounce, compared to $2,201 per ounce in the H1 and $1,256 per ounce in the H2 2024. The main drivers of cost growth for the full year were: lower sales at Kyzyl (+$139 per ounce); inflation (+$91 per ounce); and higher mineral extraction tax (MET) (+$41 per ounce), partially offset by the tenge devaluation (− $97 per ounce). The MET increased by 44% YoY to $131 million, and its share rose from 19 % to 25 % in the cost structure. Operating cash flow amounted to $689 million in the H2, compared to −$86 million in the H1, reflecting the release of working capital after sales normalisation. Free cash flow (FCF) reached $568 million for the H2 (compared to −$220 million in the H1). For the full year, FCF amounted to $348 million (−20% YoY) and capital expenditures (CapEx) were $255 million (+23% YoY), of which $128 million was allocated to the Yertis Hydrometallurgical Plant project. Net cash position increased to $464 million, with total debt at $267 million (− 17% YoY). In February 2026, terms for a credit line of up to $100 million were signed with KfW IPEX-Bank.
Our Opinion and Changes to the Valuation Model. Solidcore's financial results can be assessed as moderately positive. The first half of the year was abnormally weak due to tolling disruptions, but the second half demonstrated a broad recovery across all metrics, confirming the operational resilience of the assets. The 2026 production forecast of 540,000 ounces (+37% YoY) is a strong positive catalyst, but the doubling of capital expenditures to $510 million limits the potential for free cash flow growth. As expected, investors should not yet expect dividends amid the investment cycle. The main change in the valuation model was an increase in gold price forecasts due to rising market prices. We also increased our expected capital expenditures for 2026 and monetary cost in line with management's forecasts. As a result of these changes, we increased our target price for Solidcore shares to $9.60, implying a 26% upside potential from the last market price. Recommendation: Buy.