Our Comments and Outlook
External Environment. The US market was closed yesterday due to Thanksgiving Day. This morning, S&P 500 futures are trading up by 0.1%. With no directional signals from the US, European markets closed with minimal changes. There were reports of a technical outage affecting futures and options trading on the CME. In Asia, trading is mostly calm, except for a 1.5% decline in South Korea’s Kospi index. In commodities, oil is rising to $63.15. OPEC+ will meet on Sunday and is expected to keep its plan to halt production growth at the beginning of 2026. Gold is also strengthening, reaching its highest levels since October 21.
Bonds. US 10-year Treasury futures are slightly down, hinting at a potential end to the recent decline in yields and cooling expectations for rate cuts.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed neutral yesterday despite higher volatility in its constituent stocks. Shadows remained on the daily candlestick. A breakout above the local trendline—formed on November 4—is visible, but looks uncertain given the fluctuations in the daily candle. The market will likely pause in the coming sessions.
Index Stocks. Kazakhtelecom and KazTransOil were the top gainers yesterday. We have repeatedly noted increasing bullish sentiment in KZTK shares — the current wave has already added 9.2%. Halyk Bank is also recovering but without any major breakouts. On the LSE, GDRs closed at $24.95. Recall that the decline wave connected with the SPO started around $25.5. This morning, Kcell and Bank CenterCredit are rising, while others remain neutral.
Currency. The US dollar dropped below 513 KZT in morning trading. The strong tenge and the dollar’s decline surprised us as the move is happening without clear triggers and against seasonal patterns. However, the key driver is the high base rate, which the National Bank kept unchanged today. The regulator also indicated no room for rate cuts until the end of H1 2026. Additionally, we see a notable correlation between USDKZT and USDRUB, pointing to the ruble’s recent strengthening amid renewed peace negotiations.