Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 opened higher yesterday, but began to pull back toward the middle of the session and closed with a net gain of 0.3%. Semiconductor manufacturers showed strong growth as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), the most expensive company in Asia, alleviated concerns about the sustainability of current data center investments. It was reported that under a new trade agreement, Taiwan will invest $250 billion in chip production in the U.S. In Europe, ASML reached historic highs. Macro data for the day was positive: initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 198,000, the lowest level since November and well below the consensus forecast of 215,000; manufacturing activity in New York State increased, while the index of prices received from sales dropped to near the annual minimum. Following this, several Fed officials expressed readiness to pause interest rate cuts at the upcoming meeting. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 continued its rally, adding another 0.5%, trading at historic highs. In Asia, the morning picture is moderately negative: Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, and CSI 300 are down 0.3–0.5%, while Korean Kaspi continues to rise actively. Oil recorded its largest single-day drop in a month after President Donald Trump indicated he may temporarily refrain from attacking Iran. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% in the moment.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose 0.4% yesterday, recovering losses from the session before last. Quotes continued to consolidate amid increasing trading volumes, likely linked to the attractiveness of Kazatomprom shares.
Index Stocks. Only two out of ten stocks showed growth yesterday, but both managed to outweigh market weakness and provide a small gain for the index. The largest growth was seen in Kaspi, apparently following the 2.5% rebound of ADS on Tuesday. However, yesterday, Nasdaq stocks corrected again by 1.8%, resulting in local market shares trading about 4.5% higher at the opening of today’s session. Over the last three sessions, the direction remains uncertain: shares are volatile but within the established range. Regarding Kazatomprom, we consider yesterday’s local market growth justified despite a 0.7% drop in GDRs, as uranium quotes jumped 1.92% yesterday to reach $85 per pound, the highest since July 2024. Uranium ETFs rose 1.3–1.9%. On AIX, Solidcore continued a strong rally, reaching $7. At the opening of today’s KASE session, Kazatomprom rises 1.4%, while Kaspi declines by a comparable amount.
Currency. The dollar attempts to break out from local consolidation in the morning. USDKZT rises to 511.8 tenge. Recall that the previous local dollar peak was recorded at 512.8 tenge on January 5. Meanwhile, the ruble strengthens against the dollar for the third consecutive session, reaching 77.84 rubles. The DXY dollar index is now at its highs since December 2.