Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% yesterday. The biggest gain came from the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which added 0.45% on the back of software and semiconductor stocks’ growth. Market confidence in rate cuts may strengthen further, as today a significant revision of employment data is expected: analysts see a potential overstatement of 800k–1m jobs for the year ended in March, indicating that labor market conditions had already worsened back in 2023. In addition, the White House is preparing a report criticizing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment data, which should be published in the coming weeks. Earlier, Trump also criticized the bureau and floated the idea of releasing Nonfarm Payrolls data quarterly. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s trading desk warned that the expected Fed rate cut could trigger a drop in U.S. stocks, recommending the use of VIX options and increasing exposure to gold for hedging. In Europe, indices showed stronger growth, but expectations of French PM François Bayrou’s resignation are weighing on Stoxx 600 and DAX futures this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 0.17%. In Asia, the picture is mixed: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is rising, Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed during the session and turned negative, while Kospi is up 1.3% on the back of tech stocks. Oil is climbing to $66.7 this morning, though Gunvor analysts said the recent OPEC+ supply increase may result in weaker-than-expected price growth.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continues to fall amid data flows reinforcing rate-cut expectations. Yesterday it fell to 4.04%, the lowest since April 7.
KASE index. KASE gained 1.2% yesterday on higher volumes, closing at new all-time highs. The main drivers were BCC and Kazatomprom. However, at today’s open, quotes are down 0.7%, dropping below the September 3 close.
Index stocks. BCC rose 2.9% yesterday, partially recovering after two days of declines. Still, technically this did not change the overall picture, and the stock moved into consolidation, also reflected in today’s 2.1% drop at the open. Trading volumes fell to their lowest since August 28. The biggest gainer was Kazatomprom, which surged 4.9% locally. Uranium has been rising since late July and reached $76.75; yearly highs stand at $78.9. Alongside Kazatomprom, sector ETFs like Sprott Uranium and Global X Uranium Miners also advanced. Negative momentum continues in Kaspi ADS, correcting after the August 4–13 rally. Halyk Bank shares are down 1.3% today, failing to break above the 380 tenge resistance level.
Currency. The dollar is rising against the tenge after two consecutive sessions of decline, though USDKZT remains in a downward channel.