Our Comments and Expectations
External background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 recovered more than half of its losses from Friday, rising by 1.6% — the strongest daily gain since May of this year. The market was boosted by mutual statements from the U.S. and China expressing readiness to continue trade negotiations, which reignited investor interest in AI-related stocks. Market sentiment was also supported by easing tensions in the Middle East following a peace agreement. In Europe, the indices posted more modest gains than in the U.S., as the previous decline there had been milder. Commodities showed notable growth: copper fully recovered (though it is declining again today), and gold hit new record highs. In the morning session in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed lower after China imposed sanctions on U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co.
Bonds. The U.S. bond market was closed yesterday; however, ETFs tracking U.S. and emerging-market bonds managed to post gains.
KASE Index. The KASE index fell by 1.1% yesterday, reflecting the negative spillover from the previous global trading session. Partial recovery in commodity prices and Western markets did not provide significant support to local equities. Nevertheless, the index remained above key local support levels — a satisfactory outcome suggesting that prices may continue moving sideways or attempt to rebound toward resistance levels.
Index Stocks. The biggest loser on the local market was Kaspi, which dropped to its lowest level since August 7, 2023. However, ADS prices on Nasdaq rose by 2%, indicating a possible slight recovery in today’s session. The price gap between local and foreign exchanges narrowed to 5.7% in favor of local shares. BCC shares declined by 1.3% after a false breakout of the descending trendline, though they remain close to the sloping resistance level and continue to test it. Halyk Bank shares lost 1.1%, but the situation is not critical: prices are still consolidating sideways. Unlike the GDRs, local shares have yet to close the dividend gap. On the LSE, Air Astana GDRs saw the strongest growth — up by 8.1%. No accompanying news or high trading volumes were observed, but this rise may indicate a potential breakout attempt if prices do not correct in upcoming sessions.
Currency. USDKZT fell to 535.3 yesterday, near key support levels (closing prices from August 25 and September 8). It later rebounded, and by morning the dollar had strengthened to 538.3 tenge. It’s worth noting that an important trendline providing technical support for the dollar also runs near this area.