Our Comments and Expectations
External environment. Global markets posted solid gains yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.5% amid easing geopolitical tensions. The U.S. economy expanded slightly more than initially reported in the third quarter, supported by stronger exports and a smaller negative impact from inventories. Initial jobless claims stabilized at 200,000 last week. The Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation increased by 0.2% m/m and 2,8% y/y in November, highlighting the resilience of consumer demand. This strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut rates next week, with some voices even calling for a potential hike. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX rebounded by 1–1.2% after declining earlier in the week. Global bond markets initially rose but reversed during the session. In Asia, mainland Chinese equities showed a slight decline this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 0.16%.
KASE Index. The KASE index ended the session moderately positive. Prices rose by 0.5%, extending the pause after hitting record highs on Tuesday. Given the supportive external backdrop, the index may return to its highs today; however, we do not expect a sharp move, with gains likely capped around 7,400 points.
Index stocks. Most stocks closed in positive territory yesterday, with Kaspi being the only notable laggard, down 0.9%. However, considering a 3.3% rise in Kaspi ADS on Nasdaq, today’s session is likely to fully offset that decline and potentially add some upside. The strongest gains yesterday were seen in Kazatomprom shares. Although GDRs initially advanced, they finished the session flat. It appears that prices on the LSE have entered a local consolidation below the resistance level of $76.8. Uranium ETFs have begun to slow their advance, yet uranium itself continued its rally yesterday, rising another 1.8% to $86.5 for the nearest futures contract. The July futures trade at $87.7, while the one-year (January 2027) contract stands at $90.1.
Meanwhile, gold prices continue to climb, remaining a strong driver for Solidcore shares, which have already reached our initial target price. Since then, commodity prices have risen further, so in our next update following the financial results we are likely to introduce new forecast price levels for the shares. At today’s market open, price action is mixed: Air Astana shares are declining after five consecutive sessions of gains, while the strongest performance is seen in KazTransOil, which appears to be extending its rally after a brief pause.
Currency. The U.S. dollar is declining against the tenge for the fifth consecutive session. According to the USDKZT forex chart, the dollar fell to 502.7 tenge, which is very close to our local target of 502.6. As the tax period approaches, we still assign a fairly high probability to USDKZT falling below 500. Meanwhile, the Russian ruble strengthened to 75.98 against the dollar yesterday, which—excluding the one-day volatility spike on July 10—marks its strongest level since May 2023.