Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose, broke out above a local consolidation, and renewed highs. US producer price inflation last month came in below expectations, potentially strengthening the case for keeping the Fed rate unchanged rather than raising it at the next meeting. In addition, oil fell despite statements by Yemen’s Houthis that they had again attacked a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan on the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the Trump administration imposed a 100% tariff on certain imported goods, including unmanned aerial vehicles and their components. This could significantly affect China’s drone market and increase pressure on Beijing. This morning, oil is rising again, to $88.4 per barrel, after Bessent’s statements about “unprecedented economic measures” being prepared against Iran next week.
KASE Index. KASE set another all-time high, extended its uninterrupted growth streak to five sessions, and increased trading volumes to the highest levels since July 14. Since the start of the current upswing, the index has already gained 5.7%, and since the beginning of the year — 15.2%. Nevertheless, in the coming sessions, the main stocks that have been driving the market higher may begin to show signs of fading momentum.
Index stocks. The strongest stock in the market still remained Kaspi, which was recouping previous losses incurred at the end of last year and in the first quarter of the current year. However, we would like to draw attention to one important fact: in yesterday’s session, the quotes reached 51 100 tenge, but closed significantly lower — at 48 300 tenge, which resulted in a long upper shadow forming on the daily candle. This has happened before, after which the quotes continued to rise; however, in this case we believe this is a stronger signal that the current wave is starting to lose momentum. On Nasdaq, the candle also looked uncertain amid a wide intraday range, and the RSI moved into overbought territory. We cannot claim that the rally in Kaspi shares and ADS has ended, but we recommend monitoring the further dynamics of the securities more cautiously. Also yesterday, we noted that Kaspi needs an “ally” capable of supporting or taking over the initiative for the index to continue rising. Such a stock is now Halyk Bank, which yesterday rose 2.8% on the LSE and 1.8% in the local market. At the same time, the GDRs are already quite close to the April highs, which forms a notable resistance level. Nevertheless, in the longer-term picture, the stock remains in a stable upward channel and is now roughly in the middle of it, so there remains upside potential to the upper boundary of about 18–22%. We also note that gold has begun to run into technical resistance levels and is declining this morning, which may negatively affect the dynamics of Solidcore shares.
Currency. The dollar still cannot hold its ground and has been falling this morning to 464 tenge. Thus, on the USDKZT chart, the dollar is consolidating below recent support levels. Meanwhile, the ruble fell against the dollar to 84.4, which is the lowest level for the Russian currency since the March drop.