Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% yesterday in anticipation of the Fed meeting and reports from large companies, which account for one-third of the index’s weight. Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to indicate that monetary policy is in a good position but will refrain from giving any signals about the future direction of rate changes. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. U.S. energy networks are under growing pressure following the winter storm, and gas futures have increased another 29%. Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods to 25%, citing the failure to codify last year’s trade agreement. In Europe, indices closed neutral yesterday. This morning in Asia, the picture is positive, with South Korea’s Kospi showing the largest gain at 2.7%. Emerging markets and MSCI global equities are also rising confidently. S&P 500 futures added 0.34%. The dollar is falling, while gold surpassed $5,000 amid speculation that the U.S. may intervene to help Japan support the yen.
KASE Index. On Monday, the KASE index closed neutral. The daily candle also showed moderate price fluctuations. Volumes slightly increased compared to Friday, but more interesting dynamics were again observed in stocks on external exchanges.
Index Stocks. On the LSE, Kazatomprom quotes rose 4.4%, breaking out of a short-term local consolidation and hitting new highs. While the outlook seems positive, there is a major “but” — uranium ETFs fell 3–3.6%. In this case, GDRs did not move against the market, and the market declined after LSE closed, so Kazatomprom is likely to recover this decline today. URA and URNM showed unusual movements from the start of the session — jumping 3.5–5.6%, ETFs were immediately sold off, and then corrections accelerated after 22:30 Astana time. This was likely a machine-driven technical position fix, possibly linked to a certain price level. From the news background, neutral factor — Sprott Uranium Trust issued new shares worth $1bn; positive factor — South Korea announced construction of two large new nuclear power plants. Besides Kazatomprom, National Bank GDRs also rose yesterday, recovering after declines in early January. The $30 resistance level remains an important factor for quotes. Local market trading was moderate, with no significant technical signals. KMG shares slightly declined near historical highs, National Bank shares rose following GDRs, and Solidcore shares continued their rally as gold surpassed $5,000 per ounce.
Currency. USDKZT trading in past and current sessions shows that when quotes approach 501 KZT, traders start buying the dollar. However, pressure on the U.S. currency is still felt, considering the DXY index decline and some mixed signals from the National Bank. We note that a break below the 500 KZT level is considered the most likely scenario at the start of next month.