OPEC further lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026

OPEC once again lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, citing weaker expectations for economic activity and persistent uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the global economy. At the same time, the organization continues to expect fairly resilient growth in oil consumption despite trade conflicts and geopolitical risks.

According to OPEC’s August monthly report, global oil demand in 2026 is expected to increase by about 1.3 million barrels per day. This is 100,000 barrels per day less than the previous forecast. Thus, OPEC is revising its estimate downward for the second month in a row.

The main reason for the revision was the deterioration in expectations for the global economy. High trade barriers, uncertainty around international trade, and ongoing geopolitical risks are putting pressure on industry and transport, and therefore on fuel consumption.

OPEC also slightly lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. The organization now expects global consumption to increase by about 1.4 million barrels per day, versus 1.5 million barrels per day that had been forecast a month earlier.